Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Palmeiras – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
A highly competitive Brazil Campeonato clash between top-tier Flamengo and Palmeiras, both with strong league standings and recent solid form. Flamengo plays at home, boasting an unbeaten home record and more attacking firepower recently, while Palmeiras are resilient away and well structured defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo is unbeaten at home in 14 matches with 9 wins and 5 draws, scoring 33 goals and conceding just 4 overall, showing a robust defense and efficient attack. Palmeiras sit equal on points but have a slightly weaker away record with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 18 goals and conceding 12 in away matches.
- The H2H history is very balanced with Flamengo and Palmeiras having both won 9 matches each and 15 draws. Flamengo won the most recent encounter 2-0 at Palmeiras’ ground, indicating recent slight advantage to Flamengo.
- Flamengo misses Allan, Nicolás de la Cruz, and Saul Niguez due to injury, which could affect squad depth and attacking creativity. Palmeiras miss Figueiredo, Khellven, Lucas Evangelista, and Paulinho, a mix of defensive and creative players, possibly weakening their lineup.
- No known external disruptions such as weather or schedule congestion that would heavily bias the game. Venue is Maracanã, giving Flamengo strong home support.
- Both teams are tied on points, making this a crucial match for top league positioning. Flamengo’s unbeaten home run and the chance to extend dominance over Palmeiras at Maracanã elevate their motivation, while Palmeiras will push to close the gap and break Flamengo’s home fortress.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo: -101, Palmeiras: 315, Draw: 212 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Flamengo: 100, Palmeiras: -120 | Flamengo -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 105, Under 2.25: -125 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Flamengo at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo straight up victory
Predicted Score: 2-1