Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio do Maracana
Game Overview
Flamengo hosts Grêmio in the 22nd round of the Brazilian Serie A at Estadio do Maracana. Flamengo is in strong form at home with a potent offense and a tight defense, while Grêmio shows significantly weaker away stats and less scoring ability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo has scored 16 goals in their last 5 matches and kept the most clean sheets in the league (12). They average 2.3 goals per home game and concede only 0.47. Grêmio has scored 5 goals in the last 5 matches and averages just 1.0 goals per away match while having a weaker defensive record.
- Historically, Flamengo leads with 22 wins vs 16 for Grêmio in 48 meetings. Recent form shows Flamengo winning 4/5, with strong defensive and offensive stats. The teams have had generally tight scoring affairs with Flamengo slightly dominant.
- No significant injuries reported for Flamengo or Grêmio that strongly impact starting lineups or key players at this time.
- Match played at Flamengo's home stadium, Maracana, known for strong home support and intimidating atmosphere for visitors. Scheduled kick-off favors teams well-prepared in the early evening.
- Flamengo, fighting for a top league position, shows high motivation. Grêmio struggles on the road and is likely motivated to reduce the gap but is underdogs here.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo: -400, Grêmio: 1000, Draw: 460 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Flamengo -1.5: -120, Grêmio +1.5: 100 | Flamengo -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: 102, Under 2.75: -122 | Under 2.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.75 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win the match outright with a clean sheet and a relatively low scoring game under 2.75 total goals.
Predicted Score: 2-0