Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-01
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
The upcoming Campeonato Brazil match pits home side Flamengo, a historically stronger and more consistent team, against Fortaleza. Flamengo has shown solid recent form with more wins and fewer goals conceded, while Fortaleza has struggled with away form, having no wins on the road recently. Historically, Flamengo holds a clear edge in head-to-head matchups.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo has won 3 of their last 5 matches, drawing 1 and losing 1, averaging 1.8 goals scored and conceding only 0.4 per match. Fortaleza’s last 5 matches yielded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Fortaleza has yet to win an away game this season.
- In 21 matches since 2005, Flamengo leads with 11 wins, Fortaleza has 6 wins, and 4 matches ended in draws. Flamengo has scored 35 goals to Fortaleza’s 19 in these encounters. This historical dominance supports Flamengo's psychological and tactical advantage.
- No specific injury data was found for either side shortly before the match, implying squads are likely near full strength.
- Playing at the Maracanã Stadium gives Flamengo a strong home advantage with passionate support. Fortaleza’s away struggles are compounded by travel and unfamiliar conditions.
- Flamengo aims to maintain their lead and supremacy in the league standings, while Fortaleza is motivated to break their poor away record and gain crucial points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo: -260, Fortaleza: 700, Draw: 380 | Flamengo Win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Flamengo: -1.25 -112, Fortaleza: +1.25 -108 | Flamengo -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is favored to win given their superior form, home advantage, and dominance in head-to-head history. A controlled Flamengo victory by one or two goals is the most probable outcome.
Predicted Score: 2-0