Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Bahia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Two teams in strong contention for continental spots, Flamengo (4th) and Bahia (7th), clash in a mid-table battle with significant implications for both side's CONMEBOL Libertadores ambitions. Flamengo is favored at home, but Bahia's form and recent history suggest they can be dangerous.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo is currently in 4th place and in contention for a Libertadores spot, showing solid home performances. Bahia is in good form in Serie A, coming off a strong string of results and a notable away win. Flamengo averages 2.0 goals per match at home, Bahia averages 1.0 on the road.
- Flamengo dominates the recent head-to-head, winning 15 of the last 23 meetings, with 4 draws and 4 Bahia wins. Last 5 meetings show Flamengo with 2 wins, 2 draws, Bahia with 1 win. Flamengo averages 2.0 goals per match, Bahia 1.1. In the Brasileirao, H2H record is 14-4-4 (Flamengo wins, draws, losses) vs. Bahia's 4-14-4.
- No major injuries reported for either side as per latest updates.
- Flamengo enjoys a strong home crowd, potential for weather impact (Rio is rainy season, but stadium has cover). Bahia may have some travel fatigue.
- Both teams highly motivated for Libertadores qualification. Flamengo has extra incentive to secure a top-4 spot at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo: -250, Draw: +370, Bahia: +725 | Flamengo win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Flamengo -1.25 (-112), Bahia +1.25 (-108) | Flamengo covers | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 53% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -12% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is favored to win at home based on head-to-head dominance and superior goal-scoring statistics, but Bahia's recent form and defensive solidity suggest a lower scoring match than the average Flamengo fixture.
Predicted Score: 2-0 (Flamengo win)