Match Analysis: Flamengo-RJ vs Racing Club – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-23
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
This Copa Libertadores semifinal first-leg between Flamengo-RJ and Racing Club is poised to be a tight contest. Flamengo, playing at home, are slight favorites due to superior recent form and home advantage. Both teams have similar win rates but tend to have moderately low-scoring matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo have won 60% of their last 10 home games with 70% featuring 2 or fewer goals. Racing Club have won 60% of their last 10 away matches but only 40% of games have exceeded 2.5 goals for either team, indicating a trend toward low total scoring.
- Recent H2H stats show a balanced matchup with Flamengo holding a slight edge. Both sides have comparable performances in Copa Libertadores encounters, with no dominant side.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that would critically affect starting lineups or tactical setup.
- Flamengo benefit from home advantage at Maracanã with strong fan support and favorable playing conditions. No adverse weather or travel issues reported for either team.
- Both teams highly motivated in semifinal stage aiming for a spot in the final. Flamengo aim to capitalize on home leg advantage; Racing Club motivated to secure an away goal for the return leg.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | flamengo: -280, racing_club: 750, draw: 365 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | flamengo_-1.25: -122, racing_club_+1.25: 102 | Flamengo -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over_2.5: -102, under_2.5: -118 | Under 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo-RJ -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo moneyline win, Flamengo -1.25 spread, Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0