Match Analysis: Fiorentina vs Napoli – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Italy
Game Overview
Napoli visits Fiorentina in a Serie A clash marked by Napoli's strong recent form as favorites and a solid away record, while Fiorentina has struggled in high-stakes matches against top teams. The match has moderate goal expectations given both teams' offensive capabilities balanced by solid defenses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Napoli is unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 matches as favorites, showing consistency and resilience. Fiorentina has not performed well against top sides, especially in crucial matches, reflecting some offensive and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Napoli holds a favorable record with 9 wins to Fiorentina's 5 in 17 Serie A meetings. Napoli's tactical edge often gives them the upper hand in recent encounters.
- No major injury reports indicating absence of key players impacting lineup are noted, supporting standard team strength for both sides.
- Match played at Fiorentina's home ground, Stadio Artemio Franchi, providing home advantage, but Napoli's away form mitigates this somewhat.
- Napoli, as strong title contenders, have high motivation to secure points early in the season. Fiorentina looks to assert themselves at home but face psychological pressure facing a top opponent.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fiorentina: +245, Napoli: +125, Draw: +210 | Napoli | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Fiorentina: -110, Napoli: -110 | Napoli -0.25 | β β β ββ 69% |
Over/under | Over: -125, Under: +105 | Under 2 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Napoli 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Napoli Moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-2