Match Analysis: Fiorentina vs Lecce – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Game Overview
Fiorentina will host Lecce in a Serie A match where Fiorentina, currently struggling near the relegation zone, aims to reverse recent poor form. Lecce, showing mixed form, including a better defensive record lately, will look to capitalize on Fiorentina's vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fiorentina has not won in their last five Serie A matches and only one point in the last four home games. They score on average 1.4 goals but concede 1.8 lately. Lecce has won one away game, scoring 0.6 goals and conceding 1.2 on average in the last five matches, reflecting defensive solidity but low offensive threat.
- Historically, across 17 games since 2004, Fiorentina leads with 7 wins to Lecce's 5, and 5 draws. Recent direct encounters show Fiorentina won 2 of the last 5 matches, Lecce 1, and 2 draws. Fiorentina has a slight edge in recent performances and total goals scored in these encounters.
- Fiorentina will miss Mattia Viti (suspension), Tariq Lamptey, and Christian KouamΓ© (injuries). Lecce is missing Matias Perez, Gaby Jean, Filip Marchwinski, and Riccardo Sottil through injury, slightly weakening their squad depth.
- Playing at home is a positive for Fiorentina despite their current form. Weather or other external conditions have not been explicitly indicated as significant factors.
- Fiorentinaβs motivation is high to escape the relegation zone, needing a strong home result. Lecce, with less pressure, can approach with less stress, possibly aiming for a tactical draw or counter-attack wins.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fiorentina: -163, Lecce: 460, Draw: 290 | Fiorentina to win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Fiorentina -0.75: -125, Lecce +75: 105 | Fiorentina to cover -0.75 spread | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -112, Under 2.25: -108 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fiorentina -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fiorentina is predicted to edge this match with a narrow victory given home advantage and recent historic performance against Lecce, despite poor current form. Expect a close contest with limited goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1