Match Analysis: Fiorentina vs Bologna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Italy
Game Overview
This Serie A Round 8 clash sees an underperforming Fiorentina, sitting 18th, host a strong Bologna side in 5th place. Fiorentina's porous defense and lack of attacking output contrast with Bologna's relatively free-scoring form. The pair have not drawn in their last nine meetings, indicating a match likely to produce a winner. Bologna, having scored 11 in their last five, appear to be the form team, while Fiorentina's fortunes have dipped near the relegation zone.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fiorentina are struggling this season and sit 18th, with defensive vulnerabilities and the concession of penalties a worrying trend. In contrast, Bologna are in 5th, showing attacking intent, netting 11 goals in their last five matches[1][2]. Fiorentina have managed 7 in their last five, but their overall form is concerning.
- The last nine meetings between these teams have not ended in a draw, suggesting a decisive result is likely[2]. Recent head-to-head has alternated home and away wins, with no clear pattern of dominance by either, although Bologna's current momentum could be a factor.
- No specific injury information is available in the current data, but the absence of key players for either side could shift the balance. Check team news pre-match for updates.
- Stadio Artemio Franchi, home to Fiorentina, provides a passionate crowd, but psychological pressure is heightened for Fiorentina due to their low league position. No weather disruptions are forecasted.
- Bologna are pushing for a European spot, adding to their drive. Fiorentina are desperate for points to avoid relegation, which may lead them to adopt a more aggressive approach.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna: 174, Fiorentina: 172, Draw: 212 | Bologna win or draw | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Bologna: 0 -108, Fiorentina: 0 -112 | Bologna covers | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | over: 2.25 -102, under: 2.25 -118 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bologna at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bologna are the favorites based on form and league position, but Fiorentina's home desperation and the volatility of recent head-to-head record make this a closer contest than the league table suggests. Expect a tightly contested match, but Bologna's edge in quality and current momentum should see them prevail or, at worst, escape with a draw.
Predicted Score: 0-1 (Bologna win)
