Match Analysis: Ferencváros TC vs PFC Ludogorets Razgrad – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Groupama Aréna, Budapest, Hungary
Game Overview
Ferencváros TC enters this UEFA Europa League League Phase fixture in strong form, sitting 7th in the table with six points from three matches, including recent wins against Salzburg and Genk. Ludogorets ranks 26th with only three points, having lost two of their first three group matches. The meeting follows a tight Champions League qualifying pair earlier this season, ending 0-0 in Bulgaria and 3-0 to Ferencváros at home, suggesting a clear home advantage in this matchup. This game is crucial for both teams' ambition to progress in the competition, with Ferencváros aiming to solidify their strong group position and Ludogorets fighting to keep pace for a knockout spot[1][3].
Key Factors to Consider
- Ferencváros is undefeated in the Europa League this season (1D, 2W). They are strong at home, as shown by their 3-0 win over Ludogorets in the Champions League qualifiers. Ludogorets has struggled on the road, winning only two of their last 10 away games, and has shipped 10 goals in their last three matches before their most recent clean sheet against Cherno More[3]. Ferencváros's attacking threat is highlighted as a key advantage[3].
- In the last six meetings, Ferencváros has won three, lost one, and drawn two. Their most recent matchups include a 0-0 in Bulgaria and a 3-0 home win for Ferencváros this season, both in Champions League qualifying[2][3].
- No specific injury reports were found in the provided sources. Ferencváros's Aleksandar Pesic scored an injury-time goal in their European opener; his availability could be influential. Monitor pre-game lineups for updates.
- The match is at Ferencváros's home stadium, Groupama Aréna, where the team has performed well. There are no indications of significant weather disruptions or crowd issues expected for this fixture[1]. Ludogorets's domestic form is inconsistent, with frequent dropped points in Bulgaria this season, which may affect confidence[2].
- Ferencváros is riding high in the group and has strong momentum; a win here would solidify their place in the knockout stages. Ludogorets must avoid another loss to remain in contention for advancing. Both teams have clear motivation, but Ferencváros’s superior form and home advantage could be decisive[2][3].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ferencváros TC: -142 | Ludogorets: 350 | Draw: 290 | Ferencváros TC wins | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Ferencváros TC (-0.75): -115 | Ludogorets (+75): -115 | Ferencváros TC covers -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -118 | Under 2.5: -112 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ferencváros TC 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ferencváros TC at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ferencváros TC is favored to win due to superior form, direct head-to-head dominance at home, and Ludogorets's defensive frailties and travel struggles. The match is likely to see goals, with both teams having something to play for, but Ferencváros's attacking options should prove the difference. A predicted comfortable home win with both teams scoring is the best bet, though a clean sheet is not out of the question[3].
Predicted Score: Ferencváros 3–1 Ludogorets[3]