Match Analysis: Fenerbahce vs Nice – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-02
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, Istanbul, Turkey
Game Overview
This UEFA Europa League group phase match will see Turkish side Fenerbahce host French club Nice. Both clubs recently failed to qualify for the Champions League, competing now in the Europa League. Fenerbahce have a strong home record in the Europa League and particularly against French teams, while Nice have struggled in recent European competitions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fenerbahce currently rank 3rd in the Turkish Super Lig and have a solid home European record with only two defeats in their last 18 home Europa League group matches. They are unbeaten in their last six UEFA home matches against French opponents. Conversely, Nice have a poor recent European form, without a win in their last 13 Europa League group matches and last 13 UEFA competition matches overall.
- Historically, these teams have met five times previously in UEFA competitions, with Nice holding a slight edge in total wins but Fenerbahce winning the last two home matches. Fenerbahce are unbeaten at home against French sides in their last six encounters (W1 D5).
- No explicit current injury data available from sources for this match, suggesting minimal impact or no key absences reported at this time.
- The match is played at Fenerbahce's home stadium, the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in Istanbul, offering a strong home-field advantage. Weather and other external disruptions are not indicated as concerns. Broadcast availability varies by region, but this does not affect match conditions.
- Both teams aim to progress from the group phase after failing to qualify for the Champions League, with Fenerbahce likely more motivated given their better recent European home form. Nice’s extended European winless streak adds pressure to perform.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fenerbahce: -153, Nice: 390, Draw: 290 | Fenerbahce win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Fenerbahce: -0.75 -125, Nice: +75 -105 | Fenerbahce -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -125, Under 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fenerbahce 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fenerbahce are favorites to win this match at home given their strong historical home form against French opposition, better recent team performances, and supportive home environment.
Predicted Score: 2-1