Match Analysis: FC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: MAC³PARK stadion, Zwolle
Game Overview
A mid-table Eredivisie clash between 14th placed FC Zwolle and 11th placed NEC Nijmegen, with NEC favored due to better recent form and overall higher league standing.
Key Factors to Consider
- NEC Nijmegen holds a better recent form (DLDLW last 5) compared to FC Zwolle's struggles (LDLLD last 5), scoring 37 goals in the season vs. Zwolle's 30, and achieving more points (29 vs. 26).
- Historically NEC Nijmegen has a superior record with 56.64% estimated win probability versus Zwolle's 27.82%, and past matches favor NEC in both results and goal difference.
- No significant absentees reported for either side impacting the match, indicating both teams can field close to full strength.
- Venue is home for FC Zwolle which may marginally boost their motivation, but for NEC Nijmegen, their superior quality on away matches (~80% performance in last 5 away) is a critical external advantage.
- NEC Nijmegen aims to push higher in league standings with 14 points from 9 matches, whereas Zwolle is under pressure near relegation zone, making motivation high but underdog pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Zwolle: +220, NEC Nijmegen: +106, Draw: +275 | NEC Nijmegen | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | FC Zwolle: +102 (25), NEC Nijmegen: -122 (-0.25) | NEC Nijmegen -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3 Goals: -122, Under 3 Goals: +102 | Under 3 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | NEC Nijmegen 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: NEC Nijmegen at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
NEC Nijmegen to win on the moneyline, with a cautious lean towards a low-scoring game under the 3 goals line considering Zwolle's defensive issues but NEC's balanced attack.
Predicted Score: 1-2