Match Analysis: FC Volendam vs Heracles Almelo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Kras Stadion, Volendam, Netherlands
Game Overview
A critical Eredivisie relegation battle with FC Volendam slightly favored at home due to better recent form and defensive solidity compared to struggling Heracles Almelo, who have conceded heavily and are rooted to the bottom of the table.
Key Factors to Consider
- FC Volendam ranks 17th with 7 points from 1 win, 4 draws, and 4 losses. They have scored 10 and conceded 16 goals. Heracles Almelo are last (18th) with 3 points from 1 win and 8 losses, scoring 7 but conceding 27 goals, indicating defensive frailty.
- Volendam remains unbeaten in their last six home league meetings against Heracles Almelo, taking points in all but one, showing a psychological and tactical edge at Kras Stadion.
- No significant injury reports available; both teams likely to field close to full strength, maintaining usual squad dynamics.
- Playing at home in front of their fans at Kras Stadion gives Volendam added motivation; travel and away atmosphere challenges will affect Heracles Almelo negatively given their poor away record.
- Both sides are desperate for points to escape relegation trouble, but Volendam's relatively better league standing and recent home success imply higher motivation to secure a positive result.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Volendam: +113, Heracles Almelo: +200, Draw: +280 | FC Volendam | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | FC Volendam -0.25: -112, Heracles Almelo +25: -108 | FC Volendam -0.25 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 3: -108, Under 3: -112 | Over 3 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Volendam 17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: FC Volendam at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
FC Volendam to win
Predicted Score: 2-1