Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg, Germany
Game Overview
FC St. Pauli hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga fixture where Leverkusen enter as favorites, looking to capitalize on slightly better recent form and a more consistent away record despite St. Pauli's strong home presence.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Pauli has a solid home record (1-1-0) while Bayer Leverkusen shows inconsistent away results (0-1-0). Leverkusen overall trend is mixed but they have higher quality and recent experience in Bundesliga top-table matches.
- Recent H2H resulted in a 1-1 draw in April 2025. Leverkusen has dominated implied probabilities previously with nearly 59% implied win chance, showing historical edge but no runaway dominance.
- No precise injury information available from current data, likely mostly full squads though potential minor absences could slightly tilt balance toward home team resilience.
- Weather and pitch conditions at Millerntor-Stadion usually favor home side’s physical, pressing style. No major travel fatigue or scheduling conflicts detected.
- Leverkusen needs points to stabilize mid-table position, motivating an aggressive approach; St. Pauli aims to maintain strong home form to amass crucial points, likely leading to a competitive but close match.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bayer Leverkusen: +125, FC St. Pauli: +210, Draw: +245 | Bayer Leverkusen | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Bayer Leverkusen -0.25: -105, FC St. Pauli +25: -115 | Bayer Leverkusen -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Over 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bayer Leverkusen 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bayer Leverkusen at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen moneyline win
Predicted Score: 1-2