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FC St. Pauli vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-27
  • Time: 1:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg, Germany

Game Overview

FC St. Pauli hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga Round 5 clash. St. Pauli, currently 5th in the league with 7 points from 4 matches, faces Leverkusen, positioned 11th with 5 points. The match promises competitiveness at Millerntor-Stadion, with Leverkusen slightly favored but St. Pauli enjoying home advantage and recent solid form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • St. Pauli have won 2, drawn 1, and lost 1 in their last 4 league matches, displaying decent form with 7 points total. Bayer Leverkusen's recent results include 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, signaling inconsistency. Leverkusen scored fewer goals (approx. 1.23 projected goals) compared to expectations, while St. Pauli is showing steady defensive and offensive balance.
  • Recent encounters favor Bayer Leverkusen, who won the last league meeting 2-1 at home. However, St. Pauli are challenging and have a history of close matches against Leverkusen. Overall, Bayer Leverkusen possess a slight edge in the head-to-head matchup.
  • No explicit injury data available from the current sources, suggesting neither team has major absences reported ahead of this match.
  • The match is played at Millerntor-Stadion, giving St. Pauli a strong home advantage with supportive local fans. Weather or extraordinary circumstances were not mentioned, implying neutral external conditions.
  • St. Pauli aims to maintain their strong start and leverage home advantage to climb the table, while Leverkusen is motivated to improve their inconsistent start and secure valuable points to move out of mid-table.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen: 1.25, FC St. Pauli: 2.1, Draw: 2.45 Bayer Leverkusen win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Bayer Leverkusen -0.25: -105, FC St. Pauli +25: -115 Bayer Leverkusen -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 Under 2.5 goals ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen 13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bayer Leverkusen at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A narrow victory for Bayer Leverkusen is predicted due to their slight quality advantage and recent winning history in head-to-head, but a draw is also plausible given St. Pauli's home form and motivation.

Predicted Score: 1-2


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FC St. Pauli vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-09-27 Time: 1:30 PM UTC Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg, Germany Game Overview FC St. Pauli hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga Round 5 clash. St. Pauli, currently 5th in the league with 7 points from 4 matches, faces Leverkusen, positioned 11th with 5 […]

Bayer Leverkusen FC St. Pauli September 27, 2025 Soccer

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FC St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs Union Berlin – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 4:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

Game Overview

This Bundesliga fixture sees FC St. Pauli host Union Berlin at Millerntor-Stadion. St. Pauli, currently 16th with 7 points, are struggling for form, while Union Berlin sits 11th with 12 points. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with St. Pauli conceding 19 goals and Union Berlin 13 in 9 matches. The match is expected to be competitive, with both sides needing points for their respective league objectives.

Key Factors to Consider

  • St. Pauli have lost 7 of their last 10 league matches, including a 2-1 defeat to Freiburg in their most recent outing. Union Berlin have been inconsistent, drawing their last two games against Bayern Munich and Freiburg, but have lost 7 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches. Union Berlin have scored 13 goals and conceded 13, while St. Pauli have scored 9 and conceded 19.
  • In their previous meeting this season, St. Pauli won 3-0. Historically, Union Berlin has struggled at Millerntor-Stadion, with St. Pauli holding a slight edge in recent encounters.
  • No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
  • The match will be played at Millerntor-Stadion, known for its passionate home support, which could provide a boost for St. Pauli. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play.
  • St. Pauli are fighting to avoid relegation, while Union Berlin are aiming to climb into the top half of the table. Both teams have strong motivation to secure a positive result.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline FC St. Pauli: 150, Union Berlin: 193, Draw: 220 FC St. Pauli ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread FC St. Pauli: 0 -128, Union Berlin: 0 108 FC St. Pauli ★★★☆☆ 50%
Over/under Over: 2.25 -112, Under: 2.25 -108 Over ★★★☆☆ 52%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline FC St. Pauli 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.25 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: FC St. Pauli at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the recent form and head-to-head record, St. Pauli are slight favorites at home, but Union Berlin's resilience and attacking threat make this a closely contested match. A narrow home win or draw is the most likely outcome.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany

Game Overview

RB Leipzig (2nd in Bundesliga with 22 points) hosts Werder Bremen (8th, 15 points) at Red Bull Arena in a Round 11 Bundesliga fixture. Leipzig is in strong form, undefeated in their last 12 matches against Bremen and boasting an impressive goal-scoring record recently. Bremen have been competitive, unbeaten in their last five games, but historically struggle against Leipzig.

Key Factors to Consider

  • RB Leipzig has scored 16 goals in their last 5 matches and remain unbeaten against Werder Bremen in their recent 12 encounters (8 wins, 4 draws). Werder Bremen has scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches and are unbeaten in their last 5 games, indicating decent momentum but less firepower compared to Leipzig.
  • Leipzig has not lost to Bremen in the last 12 meetings, with 8 wins and 4 draws. Matches between them often feature goals, with a pattern of over 2.5 goals in recent meetings.
  • No specific current injury reports available, but given recent lineups and squad health, no major absences for Leipzig or Bremen are noted.
  • The match is at Leipzig's home ground, the Red Bull Arena, which provides a home advantage. The weather and pitch conditions are expected to be normal. No notable external disruptions or motivational factors reported.
  • RB Leipzig, as title challengers and sitting 2nd, are motivated to maintain their top position and capitalize on home advantage. Werder Bremen, mid-table, will aim to upset Leipzig and close the points gap, providing decent motivation for an energetic performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline RB Leipzig: -235, Werder Bremen: 525, Draw: 420 RB Leipzig win ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread RB Leipzig -1.25: -118, Werder Bremen +1.25: -102 RB Leipzig to cover -1.25 spread ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over 3.5: -118, Under 3.5: -102 Over 3.5 goals ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline RB Leipzig -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 3.5 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

RB Leipzig is strongly favored to win, likely securing a comfortable victory due to superior form, historical dominance, and home advantage.

Predicted Score: 3-1


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1. FC Köln vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 5:30 PM UTC
  • Location: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, Germany

Game Overview

The Bundesliga Round 11 fixture features 1. FC Köln hosting Eintracht Frankfurt at RheinEnergieStadion. Köln is positioned just below Frankfurt in the table by 3 points but has demonstrated solid recent home form, including wins against teams like Hamburger SV and a draw with Augsburg. Frankfurt has slightly better table positioning and recent success, including a narrow win against Mainz, indicating a competitive matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • 1. FC Köln has a mixed recent form with 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw in their last five matches; they tend to perform strongly at home. Eintracht Frankfurt shows more stable form and better league standing, often collecting points steadily. Köln has drawn at halftime but won full time in their last three home matches against Frankfurt, suggesting strong second-half performances.
  • Recent head-to-head results favor 1. FC Köln with notable victories: 2-0 in February 2024 and 3-0 in February 2023. Frankfurt managed a 1-1 draw in September 2023 and August 2022, indicating a competitive rivalry but a slight edge historically to Köln at home.
  • Oscar Højlund of 1. FC Köln is out with a thigh injury until late November 2025, potentially impacting midfield strength. No major injury reports noted for Eintracht Frankfurt in the current data.
  • Match played at Köln's home ground provides a home advantage. Weather or other external disruptions are not indicated. Motivation levels should be high as both teams are closely placed and motivated to gain points in a tight Bundesliga race.
  • Köln aims to capitalize on home form to close the points gap with Frankfurt, while Frankfurt looks to maintain momentum and a higher league position. The competitive history adds to both teams' motivation to assert dominance in this fixture.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline 1_FC_Köln: 2.00, Eintracht_Frankfurt: 1.20, Draw: 2.70 1. FC Köln to win ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread 1_FC_Köln: -0.25 @ -112, Eintracht_Frankfurt: +25 @ -108 Eintracht Frankfurt -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 3.25 @ 1.02, Under: 3.25 @ -1.22 Over 3.25 goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Eintracht Frankfurt -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 3.25 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

A closely contested match with a slight advantage to 1. FC Köln due to historical home dominance and recent comeback capabilities. Expect a narrow home victory or a draw, with potential for goals from both sides given their attacking profiles.

Predicted Score: 2-2


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VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany

Game Overview

The Bundesliga match features VfL Wolfsburg, currently 14th in the league, hosting Bayer Leverkusen, positioned 5th. Wolfsburg has struggled recently with more losses than wins. Leverkusen has been in better form, including a recent 6-0 home win and generally stronger defensive records against Wolfsburg, having kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 7 away matches against them.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Wolfsburg's performance is weak with only 12 goals scored and 24 conceded this season, while Leverkusen boasts better offensive and defensive form, including high-scoring wins and fewer goals conceded in head-to-head away matches.
  • In recent encounters, Bayer Leverkusen have dominated defensively, maintaining 6 clean sheets in their last 7 away games versus Wolfsburg, including a goalless draw in the most recent meeting.
  • No explicit injury data currently available from the sources; however, key players like M. Amoura (Leverkusen) and P. Schick are in form and expected to play.
  • The match is played at Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg's home ground, which may provide some home advantage despite their lower league standing. Weather or other external conditions were not specified.
  • Leverkusen aims to maintain their top 5 position and build on recent strong performances. Wolfsburg seeks to escape the bottom zone by improving home results against a tough opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen: 100, VfL Wolfsburg: 250, Draw: 270 Bayer Leverkusen to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Bayer Leverkusen: -0.5, VfL Wolfsburg: 50 Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 3, Under: 3 Under 3 goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen 20%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bayer Leverkusen at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bayer Leverkusen is favored to win or draw, given their superior recent form, defensive strength against Wolfsburg, and higher league standing.

Predicted Score: Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg


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Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Augsburg vs Hamburger SV – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: WWK Arena, Augsburg, Germany

Game Overview

FC Augsburg, currently 15th in the Bundesliga, hosts Hamburger SV, ranked 13th, in a tightly contested match at WWK Arena. Both teams have struggled for consistency this season. Augsburg has a slightly poorer home form, and recent encounters have seen close results with the home side winning in their last four Bundesliga meetings. The match looks potentially low-scoring with defensive discipline from both sides but also opportunities given the teams' offensive struggles.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Augsburg holds a 15th position with 7 points from 9 games and a negative goal difference (-9). Hamburger SV is slightly better positioned at 13th with 8 points and a -7 goal difference. Augsburg has won 2, drawn 1, and lost 6 matches, while Hamburg has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. Recent form shows Augsburg suffering an 80% loss rate at home this season, while Hamburg's away form is slightly better but still inconsistent.
  • The last Bundesliga meetings favored the home team, with Augsburg winning the previous home game 1-0 in January 2018. In total, the last four Bundesliga home meetings ended in home wins without conceding. Historically, results have been close, with neither side dominating the fixture significantly.
  • Available data does not specify current injuries for either side explicitly. Absence of key players cannot be confirmed but should be monitored closer to matchday.
  • The game being at Augsburg's home pitch should give them a slight edge given historical home victories in this fixture. Weather and pitch conditions are assumed normal for late November in Augsburg with no extreme disruptions reported.
  • Both teams aim to climb out of the relegation-threatened lower half, adding urgency and motivation to secure points. Augsburg's struggle at home intensifies their need for a result, while Hamburg also seeks to stabilize and improve standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Augsburg: 1.35, Hamburger SV: 1.85, Draw: 2.6 Augsburg win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Augsburg -0.25: 1.05, Hamburger SV +25: 1.25 Augsburg to cover -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.75: 1.15, Under 2.75: 1.05 Under 2.75 goals ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Augsburg 29%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.75 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Augsburg at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A narrow home victory for Augsburg is projected based on home advantage, recent head-to-head trends, and motivation to improve their poor home record.

Predicted Score: 1-0


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Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 22, 2025
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany

Game Overview

Borussia Dortmund hosts VfB Stuttgart in a pivotal Bundesliga Round 11 matchup between two evenly matched sides. Both teams currently sit on 21 points, with Dortmund in 3rd place and Stuttgart in 4th. This encounter carries significant implications for the title race, as both clubs look to assert dominance in the middle of the season. The match presents contrasting styles, with Dortmund favoring aggressive attacking play at home while Stuttgart has proven resilient and dangerous on the road.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Borussia Dortmund has scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, demonstrating offensive prowess with forward Sérgio Guirassy contributing 5 goals in 9 matches. However, their recent form shows inconsistency with a 1-1 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt and a 4-1 loss to Manchester City. VfB Stuttgart enters with identical point totals to Dortmund (21 pts from 10 matches, 7W-0D-3L record) and has shown superior consistency. Stuttgart's midfielder Boubakary El Khannouss has created 2 assists and has been pivotal in their setup play.
  • VfB Stuttgart have not lost to Borussia Dortmund in their last 6 meetings, recording 5 wins and 1 draw. Recent history heavily favors Stuttgart, including a dominant 5-1 victory on September 22, 2024, and a 1-2 away win on February 8, 2025. This pattern suggests Stuttgart possesses tactical solutions to Dortmund's attacking approach and maintains psychological advantage entering this fixture.
  • No specific injury information is available in the provided data. Both teams appear to have full squad availability based on the featured players listed, though detailed injury reports would be essential for precise analysis.
  • The match is contested at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund's home stadium, providing typical home-field advantage. However, Stuttgart's strong away record and recent dominance in this fixture may neutralize some of this advantage. Weather conditions at the venue in late November could favor either team's style of play.
  • Both teams sit level on points with the same record (10 matches played), creating maximum motivation for all three outcomes. For Dortmund, losing at home would be psychologically damaging and drop them further behind title contenders. For Stuttgart, a win would continue their impressive streak and potentially propel them into title contention. The competitive balance suggests both sides will approach this match with intensity and precision.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dortmund -132 | Draw 305 | Stuttgart 320 VfB Stuttgart Win or Draw ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Dortmund -0.75 (-105) | Stuttgart +75 (-115) Stuttgart +0.75 or Dortmund -0.75 (Lean Stuttgart) ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 3 (-122) | Under 3 (102) Over 3.0 Total Goals ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Borussia Dortmund 76%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 3 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Borussia Dortmund at 76% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This match is extremely competitive and evenly balanced. VfB Stuttgart's superior head-to-head record (5W-1D in last 6), combined with their identical league points and better recent performance consistency, gives them a marginal edge despite playing away. Dortmund's home advantage and attacking firepower provide legitimate path to victory. The match is likely to be closely contested with multiple scoring opportunities for both sides. Expected outcome: Either a Stuttgart win or a closely-contested draw, with Dortmund less favored than typical home team expectations would suggest.

Predicted Score: Borussia Dortmund 1-2 VfB Stuttgart (Most Likely) | Alternative: 2-2 Draw


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1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Monchengladbach Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Monchengladbach – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 22 Nov 2025
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz, Germany

Game Overview

1. FC Heidenheim hosts Borussia Mönchengladbach in a Bundesliga matchday fixture at the Voith-Arena. Heidenheim, currently struggling at the bottom of the table, faces a Mönchengladbach side looking to maintain consistency. This represents a critical clash for both teams, with Heidenheim desperately needing points to climb out of the relegation zone and Mönchengladbach aiming to secure their position in the upper half of the standings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Heidenheim is in poor form, having suffered a humiliating 6-0 away defeat against Bayer Leverkusen two weeks prior, conceding four times in the first 27 minutes. This catastrophic result highlights significant defensive vulnerabilities and psychological damage. Borussia Mönchengladbach, by contrast, appears to be in relatively stable condition with better overall performance metrics this season. The disparity in current form is substantial, with Heidenheim's basement position contrasting sharply with Mönchengladbach's mid-table status.
  • Historical head-to-head data between these clubs shows competitive matchups, though specific recent encounter details are limited in available information. However, home advantage at the Voith-Arena has traditionally provided Heidenheim with a modest edge, though this appears diminished given their current poor form.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach has notable injury concerns with Robin Hack sidelined until mid-December 2025 due to a meniscus injury. Tim Kleindiensz's injury status appears resolved (late October 2025 notation suggests recovery). These absences, particularly Hack's, represent a meaningful impact on Mönchengladbach's attacking depth and creativity.
  • Weather conditions at Voith-Arena in late November typically favor fast-paced, open play. The match timing at 14:30 UTC provides neutral conditions for both teams. Heidenheim's home support may provide psychological lift despite poor recent results, though momentum appears heavily against them.
  • Heidenheim faces existential pressure—their relegation-zone position demands immediate results to avoid a catastrophic season. This desperation often translates to attacking intensity at home. Mönchengladbach, conversely, seeks to consolidate their position and move toward European qualification spots. The motivation asymmetry slightly favors Heidenheim's aggressive approach, though their technical deficiencies may prevent effective execution.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Heidenheim: -220 | Draw: +265 | Mönchengladbach: -115 Borussia Mönchengladbach Win ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Heidenheim +25 (-105) | Mönchengladbach -0.25 (-115) Mönchengladbach -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over 2.75 (-122) | Under 2.75 (+102) Under 2.75 Goals ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Borussia Monchengladbach 93%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.75 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Borussia Monchengladbach at 93% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Borussia Mönchengladbach is favored to secure a victory, though Heidenheim's home advantage and desperation create a competitive contest. Mönchengladbach's superior overall form, table position, and defensive organization suggest they can exploit Heidenheim's documented fragility. The absence of Robin Hack is notable but not catastrophic given Mönchengladbach's squad depth. Expect Mönchengladbach to control possession and create more clear-cut opportunities, with Heidenheim relying on direct counter-attacking and set-piece opportunities. A narrow Mönchengladbach victory (1-0 or 2-1) is the most probable outcome.

Predicted Score: 1-2 (Mönchengladbach Victory)


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Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

Game Overview

Bayern Munich hosts SC Freiburg in Matchday 11 of the 2025/26 Bundesliga season. Bayern, currently leading the league, faces a Freiburg side struggling for consistency. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with Bayern's attacking prowess and Freiburg's vulnerability to conceding after halftime.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bayern Munich has been dominant, scoring at least two goals in each of their last 18 Bundesliga games and all 10 league matches this season ending with 3+ goals. Their recent form includes a 2-2 draw away to Union Berlin, ending a 16-game winning streak. SC Freiburg has been below average, with only one win in their last six games and poor defensive record, especially after halftime.
  • Bayern Munich has never lost a Bundesliga home game against Freiburg (22 wins, 3 draws). The last five meetings show Bayern winning 3-0, 2-0, and 2-1, with Freiburg managing only one draw in the last five encounters.
  • Bayern Munich reports no major injuries, with all players returning from international duty unscathed. Freiburg's injury status is not specified, but their set-piece reliance suggests they may be vulnerable if key players are missing.
  • Bayern's home advantage at Allianz Arena is significant, with a strong record against Freiburg. Freiburg's reliance on set-pieces for goals (7 of 13 this season) could be exploited by Bayern's defense.
  • Bayern Munich is motivated to bounce back after their recent draw and maintain their league lead. Freiburg seeks to improve their form and avoid further losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bayern Munich: -550, SC Freiburg: 1300, Draw: 600 Bayern Munich ★★★★★ 95%
Spread Bayern Munich: -2 -118, SC Freiburg: 2 -102 Bayern Munich -2 ★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under Over: 3.5 -110, Under: 3.5 -110 Over 3.5 ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Bayern Munich 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 3.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bayern Munich is expected to win comfortably, with a high probability of scoring multiple goals. Freiburg's poor form and defensive vulnerabilities suggest they will struggle to contain Bayern's attack.

Predicted Score: Bayern Munich 3-1 SC Freiburg


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FSV Mainz 05 vs. TSG Hoffenheim Prediction Bundesliga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs TSG Hoffenheim – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-21
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: MEWA Arena, Mainz, Germany

Game Overview

The Bundesliga match between FSV Mainz 05 and TSG Hoffenheim features Mainz struggling near the bottom of the table with only 5 points, while Hoffenheim is in better form sitting higher with 19 points. The game is critical for Mainz to halt a poor run, whereas Hoffenheim aims to climb into European qualification places. Hoffenheim's recent form is notably stronger, including a 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig and a previous 2-0 win over Mainz, indicating a psychological edge.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Mainz is currently positioned 17th with 5 points after 10 games, struggling offensively and defensively. Hoffenheim has shown much better form, most recently beating RB Leipzig 3-1 and accumulating 19 points in 10 matches, proving effective both home and away.
  • In their last five meetings, Hoffenheim has seen mixed results with Mainz, including a 2-0 Hoffenheim win on April 12, 2025, but also losses to Mainz. The rivalry is competitive, however Hoffenheim appears to hold a slight advantage in recent encounters.
  • Midfielder N. Amiri from Mainz is listed as doubtful which could weaken Mainz's midfield creativity. No major injury concerns reported for Hoffenheim at this moment.
  • The match takes place at Mainz’s MEWA Arena, providing home advantage to Mainz. Current weather or pitch conditions are not reported to affect play. Mainz faces added pressure due to their relegation-threatened position, potentially influencing urgency and defensive caution.
  • Mainz is highly motivated to gain points to escape relegation, creating urgency. Hoffenheim’s motivation stems from potential European qualification, with confidence high after recent positive results.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline FSV Mainz 05: 152, TSG Hoffenheim: 165, Draw: 260 TSG Hoffenheim Win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread FSV Mainz 05: 0 -115, TSG Hoffenheim: 0 -105 TSG Hoffenheim 0 Spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 3 -102, Under: 3 -118 Under 3 Goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline TSG Hoffenheim 19%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: TSG Hoffenheim at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

TSG Hoffenheim is predicted to win this match given their superior form, higher league standing, and recent past victories against Mainz. Mainz’s struggle and doubtful injury to a key midfielder further reduce their chances.

Predicted Score: Mainz 1 – 2 Hoffenheim


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