Match Analysis: FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Game Overview
FC Dallas hosts Colorado Rapids in a closely contested MLS matchup with both teams struggling defensively and positioned in the lower third of the table. Dallas shows a slight edge at home but injuries and form create uncertainty.
Key Factors to Consider
- FC Dallas holds a record of 8-10-11 with 42 goals scored and 48 conceded, a negative goal differential (-6) and a low expected goals of 39.3, reflecting underperformance in attack. Colorado Rapids stand at 11-6-13 with 41 goals scored similarly negative goal differential (-9), but slightly better defensive record with 41 goals conceded. Both teams have a similar shutout rate (~20%).
- Historically, matches between these two sides have been competitive with no overwhelming dominance. Recent H2H records suggest a balance, increasing the likelihood of a closely fought game possibly resulting in a draw or narrow win.
- No major reported injuries affect starting goalkeepers or key players for both teams. Both Jacob Jackson (Dallas) and Zack Steffen (Colorado) are expected to start, maintaining standard defensive stability.
- The match is at FC Dallasβ home stadium, which marginally benefits Dallas. Weather or other external conditions were not noted as significant factors.
- Colorado Rapids, sitting higher in the table, have stronger motivation to gain points to improve playoff positioning. FC Dallas is battling to climb out of the lower positions, adding competitive edge at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | FC Dallas: 115, Colorado Rapids: 195, Draw: 290 | FC Dallas | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | FC Dallas -0.5: 111, Colorado Rapids +50: -149 | FC Dallas -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 3.5: 125, Under 3.5: -167 | Under 3.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | FC Dallas 18% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: FC Dallas at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: FC Dallas win; Spread: FC Dallas -0.5; Over/Under: Under 3.5 goals
Predicted Score: 2-1