Match Analysis: FC Cincinnati vs CF Montreal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, USA
Game Overview
FC Cincinnati hosts CF Montreal in this Major League Soccer fixture. Cincinnati currently ranks 2nd in the league with strong offensive and defensive metrics, outperforming Montreal who is positioned 13th. Recent head-to-head results favor Cincinnati, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters, including the most recent away victory in June 2025 by 3-1. Montreal struggles defensively, conceding the most goals in the league, while Cincinnati has been among the top teams for wins and defensive solidity.
Key Factors to Consider
- FC Cincinnati has scored 49 goals and conceded 40 this season, ranking in the top 10 defensively and mid-table offensively. CF Montreal, with only 34 goals scored and 57 conceded, rank near the bottom for both offense and defense. Cincinnati has won 19 out of 33 matches, reflecting consistent form, while Montreal has struggled with disciplinary issues, suffering the most fouls in the league and conceding many goals.
- Head-to-head stats show FC Cincinnati leads with 6 wins out of 13 meetings since 2019, CF Montreal has 4 wins, and 3 matches ended in draws. In the last five matches, Cincinnati won 3, Montreal 1, and 1 draw occurred. Recent form large favors Cincinnati, who won the latest away encounter 3-1 and the last two matches overall.
- No specific injury data is currently available for either team; thus, we assume both squads are at or near full strength for this match.
- The game is played at FC Cincinnati's home stadium, TQL Stadium, giving them home advantage. Montrealβs high foul rate and susceptibility to conceding free kicks could prove problematic, especially playing away.
- With Cincinnati performing strongly near the top of the MLS standings, motivation to secure points and possibly clinch playoff positions is high. Montreal, sitting lower in the league, may be desperate to improve their standing and upset a stronger opponent, but pressure may impact performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Cincinnati: -182, CF Montreal: 400, Draw: 360 | FC Cincinnati win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | FC Cincinnati -1.5: 132, CF Montreal +1.5: -175 | FC Cincinnati -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 109, Under 3.5: -145 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Cincinnati -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
FC Cincinnati is favored to win this match based on superior form, home advantage, better offense and defense statistics, and recent head-to-head dominance.
Predicted Score: 2-1