Match Analysis: Estudiantes La Plata vs Cerro Porteño – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina
Game Overview
This Copa Libertadores Round of 16 second leg features Estudiantes La Plata hosting Cerro Porteño with Estudiantes holding a narrow advantage from the first leg. The tie is balanced but Estudiantes have home advantage and recent form suggesting slight edge.
Key Factors to Consider
- Estudiantes are unbeaten in their last five home games, securing four wins and three clean sheets. They also have solid Copa Libertadores form with 4 wins, no draws, and 2 losses in six group games. Cerro Porteño have struggled defensively in the Libertadores, conceding 11 goals in 6 matches and losing 3 times.
- In four Libertadores meetings, Estudiantes won once, two draws, and minimal goals scored overall. The previous leg ended with Estudiantes winning narrowly away 1-0, indicating a tight matchup historically and currently.
- Estudiantes miss Joaquín Tobio Burgos (pelvic), Gabriel Neves (muscle), and Ezequiel Piovi (knee), impacting squad depth. Cerro Porteño's injury situation is less clear from available data but no major absences noted.
- Estudiantes benefit from home support and familiarity with Estadio Ciudad de La Plata. Cerro Porteño will face travel and hostile atmosphere, which historically favors home team in Libertadores knockouts.
- Estudiantes motivated to consolidate aggregate lead and progress in Libertadores; recent league defeat may heighten focus. Cerro Porteño motivated to overturn deficit, but defensive frailties and away challenge limit their confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -148 | Estudiantes | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | -0.75 -125 | Estudiantes -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2 -140 / Under 2 108 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Estudiantes La Plata 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 35% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Estudiantes Moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-0