Match Analysis: Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-26
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
Game Overview
This is the decisive second leg of the Bundesliga relegation/promotion playoff between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim. The first leg ended 2-2 in Heidenheim, leaving the tie finely balanced. Heidenheim, despite a disappointing Bundesliga campaign, showed resilience to come from two goals down. Elversberg, the third-place team from Bundesliga 2, arrive with momentum after a strong season and an unbeaten run of eight matches prior to the first leg[1][2][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Heidenheim struggled in the Bundesliga, finishing 16th, but demonstrated spirit in the playoff first leg. Elversberg was a surprise package in Bundesliga 2, finishing third after exceeding expectations all season[1][2][5].
- Limited historical data, but the first leg ended 2-2. Heidenheim took 14 shots in the second leg, indicating attacking intent, but both teams have shown they can threaten the opponent's goal[2][4].
- No major reported injuries from the last match data; both teams appeared at near full strength[2][3].
- Elversberg is a small club with modest infrastructure, but strong home support could play a psychological role. Heidenheim has recent Bundesliga experience but travels to a unique environment[5].
- Heidenheim are fighting for Bundesliga survival. Elversberg are chasing a historic first-ever promotion to the Bundesliga, providing extra motivation for the home side[5].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | 1. FC Heidenheim: 215, Elversberg: 120, Draw: 235 | Elversberg to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | 1. FC Heidenheim: 25 -110, Elversberg: -0.25 -110 | Elversberg -0.25 (win) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 2.75 -118, Under: 2.75 -102 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Elversberg -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 -2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Elversberg at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A tense, closely contested match is expected. Elversberg, motivated by history and strong recent form, has a slight edge at home, but Heidenheim's experience and first-leg fightback suggest this could go to extra time or penalties. However, given the momentum and odds, Elversberg is favored to win in regular time.
Predicted Score: Elversberg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim