Match Analysis: Derby County vs Queens Park Rangers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Pride Park Stadium, Derby, England
Game Overview
Derby County will host Queens Park Rangers at Pride Park Stadium in an English Football League Championship match. As of this season, Derby County is struggling at 18th place, while Queens Park Rangers hold a more comfortable 11th place. Their recent fixtures show QPR delivering stronger performances, including a notable 4-0 victory over Derby earlier in the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Derby County is underperforming relative to expectations, positioned near the relegation zone, showing inconsistency in their recent matches. QPR have displayed stronger form and better offensive capability recently, including a dominant 4-0 win over Derby in February 2025 which could psychologically impact Derby. However, Derby has the home advantage at Pride Park.
- Recent head-to-head meetings favor Queens Park Rangers, highlighted by a significant 4-0 away win against Derby County in February 2025. Historical performance indicates QPR have the upper hand over Derby in recent fixtures.
- Current injury details for both teams have not been explicitly reported in the available data, but historically, Derby has struggled with squad depth limiting their performance.
- Home support at Pride Park offers Derby County some advantage. Weather or pitch conditions are not flagged as significant factors at this time. No major external disruptions are noted.
- Derby County is likely highly motivated to improve their league standing and avoid relegation worries, potentially increasing their effort at home. Queens Park Rangers, comfortably mid-table, might be motivated to consolidate their position or push for higher ranking spots.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Derby County: 1.55, Queens Park Rangers: 1.74, Draw: 2.1 | Draw | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Derby County: -118, Queens Park Rangers: -102 | Derby County 0 spread (draw no bet) | β β β ββ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -116, Under 2.25: -104 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Derby County 30% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Derby County at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Derbyβs lower league standing but home advantage, and QPRβs better form and historic head-to-head advantage, the match is predicted to be close. The likely outcome is a draw or a narrow win for Queens Park Rangers.
Predicted Score: 1-1