Match Analysis: D.C. United vs Austin FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Audi Field, Washington, D.C.
Game Overview
MLS 2025, Week 23. 18th-placed Austin FC (8-6-8, 30 pts) are pushing for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, fresh off a win, and are riding a 100% record against D.C. United, who are in deep last place (4-7-13, 19 pts) and mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Austin FC’s 75.8% save rate and strong goalkeeping (Brad Stuver) contrast sharply with D.C. United’s leaky defense (63.7% save rate, 1.88 goals conceded/game) and lack of offensive threat (0.79 points/match).
Key Factors to Consider
- Austin FC is in better form, having just beaten LA Galaxy on the road and showing above-average defensive numbers. D.C. United, mired in a three-game losing streak, has the league’s worst goal difference (-25), a poor expected goals metric, and has conceded the third-most goals in MLS. Austin FC averages 1.15 goals/game, allows 1.41 goals/game, and has a strong +9 goal difference; D.C. United averages a league-low 20 goals for, allows 45, and has just 4 clean sheets in 24 games.
- Austin FC has a 100% record against D.C. United, having won all previous meetings.
- No significant injury updates available in the sources provided.
- Game is at D.C. United’s home ground, but Audi Field has not provided much of an advantage for the struggling hosts.
- Austin FC is fighting for a playoff spot, while D.C. United is already eliminated and playing with little to no stakes.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Austin FC +170, D.C. United +154, Draw +238 | AUSTIN FC (AWAY) | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Austin FC 50 (-196), D.C. United -0.5 (+145) | AUSTIN FC (0.5) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (-116), Under 2.5 (-114) | UNDER 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 53% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Austin FC 46% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 -2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Austin FC at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Austin FC, despite being on the road, is the clear value play due to superior form, goalkeeping, and motivation. D.C. United lacks the defense and attacking efficiency to slow them down.
Predicted Score: D.C. United 0 – Austin FC 1