Match Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Vitoria – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Mineirao, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Game Overview
Cruzeiro hosts Vitoria in a Brazil Serie A clash with both teams in contrasting form. Cruzeiro is strong at home, while Vitoria struggles away and offensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro averages 2.33 PPG at home, 2.53 goals scored per home game, and 0.73 conceded. Vitoria averages 1.47 PPG away, 1 goal scored per away game, and 0.67 conceded. Cruzeiro’s xG at home is 1.65, while Vitoria’s xG away is well below 1.0. Vitoria has failed to score in 47% of away games.
- Recent H2H shows tight matches, but Cruzeiro has dominated at home. Vitoria has only 1 win in 15 away Serie A fixtures in 2025.
- No major injuries reported for either side as of latest updates.
- Cruzeiro’s home advantage is significant, with a 73% home win rate. Vitoria’s away record is poor, with only 1 win in 15 away games. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be standard.
- Cruzeiro is fighting for a top-half finish, while Vitoria is battling relegation and lacks confidence on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -235, away: 625, draw: 340 | Cruzeiro | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: 105, away: -125 | Cruzeiro -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Under 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cruzeiro to win to nil is the highest EV play, given Vitoria’s poor away scoring record and Cruzeiro’s defensive solidity at home.
Predicted Score: 2-0