Match Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Governador Magalhaes Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Game Overview
Cruzeiro hosts Grêmio in a highly anticipated Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A matchup, with Cruzeiro favored due to stronger recent form and home advantage. Both teams are competitive but Cruzeiro has a slight edge in motivation and squad strength.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro shows superior recent form and consistency in the league, positioned well in the standings; Grêmio has struggled more and faces away disadvantages.
- Historically, Cruzeiro holds an advantage over Grêmio with a higher win percentage, particularly when playing at home.
- No major injury concerns reported for Cruzeiro; Grêmio could be missing some key players, reducing their competitiveness.
- Cruzeiro benefits from home crowd support and familiar pitch conditions; travel fatigue may affect Grêmio adversely.
- Cruzeiro is motivated to consolidate their league position, while Grêmio looks to salvage points but with less urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cruzeiro: -150, Grêmio: 460, Draw: 265 | Cruzeiro | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Cruzeiro -0.75: -112, Grêmio +75: -108 | Cruzeiro -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 102, Under 2.25: -122 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cruzeiro -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cruzeiro to win decisively with under 2.5 total goals scored
Predicted Score: 1-0