Match Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Fluminense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Cruzeiro Home Stadium
Game Overview
Cruzeiro hosts Fluminense in a key Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A clash with both sides closely matched in the league table but Cruzeiro enjoying strong home form and a slight edge in recent head-to-head results.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro is 4th with 38 points, unbeaten in last 5 matches including 5 home games, scoring in every home match. Fluminense is 5th with 37 points but struggles away with only 3 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses on the road.
- Recent meetings favor Cruzeiro slightly at home with scores like 3-1 and 2-0. Historically, Fluminense leads overall but Cruzeiro has tactical advantages when hosting.
- Cruzeiro missing key players Lucas Silva (suspended), Fagner, Marquinhos, Matheus Henrique, Wanderson, Yannick Bolasie (injured). Fluminense without Martinelli (suspended), Ganso, German Cano, Manoel Messias (injured).
- No apparent weather or venue complications. Motivation may be high for Cruzeiro to maintain top 4 position; Fluminense aims to close the gap but is weaker away.
- Cruzeiro highly motivated to capitalize on home advantage and continue unbeaten streak. Fluminense under pressure to improve dismal away form but lacks key attackers.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro: 100, Fluminense: 312, Draw: 226 | Cruzeiro | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Cruzeiro -0.5: -103, Fluminense +50: -117 | Cruzeiro -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 106, Under 2.25: -126 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro 10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cruzeiro to win outright with under 2.5 total goals
Predicted Score: 1-0