Match Analysis: Corinthians vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Corinthians home stadium
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato Serie A clash features Corinthians hosting Grêmio. Both teams sit close in standings, with similar points but contrasting home and away forms. Corinthians shows stronger home performance, while Grêmio struggles on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Corinthians has had a solid home record (6W,4D,4L) and improved recent form with 3 wins in the last 5 matches. Grêmio's away form is notably weaker (3W,4D,8L) with defensive vulnerabilities.
- Recent encounters have been balanced but slightly favor Corinthians at home. A recent match ended 1-1, suggesting a competitive matchup but with Corinthians having slight edge given venue and form.
- No major absences reported that significantly alter starting lineups for either side, maintaining team strengths intact.
- No known external disturbances; standard conditions expected. Home advantage and crowd support favor Corinthians.
- Corinthians motivated to secure three points to improve league standing and capitalize on home advantage. Grêmio seeks to gain points away to climb from the lower mid-table.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Corinthians: -142, Grêmio: 405, Draw: 260 | Corinthians | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Corinthians -0.75: -108, Grêmio +75: -112 | Corinthians -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -112, Under 2.25: -108 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Corinthians 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Corinthians win; Spread: Corinthians -0.75; Over/Under: Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0