Match Analysis: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Soldier Field
Game Overview
The MLS regular season clash between Chicago Fire and New York City FC is a crucial Eastern Conference matchup with playoff implications, as both teams are near the Wild Card positions fighting for postseason qualification. Chicago Fire sits ninth, closely trailing eighth-placed New York City FC by two points but having played one more game. The game is expected to be competitive given the close standings and recent forms.
Key Factors to Consider
- New York City FC currently leads the head-to-head form with a notable 3-1 victory over Chicago Fire in May, has slightly better consistency with 13 wins this season versus Chicago Fireβs 12. Chicago is on a hot streak with only one loss in their last 13 matches, including three consecutive wins heading into this match. New York is eager to bounce back from a recent defeat to D.C. United and capitalize on the remaining fixtures to solidify their playoff position.
- Recent encounters favor New York City FC, including a convincing 3-1 home win in May this year. However, matches have often been tight, with close scorelines and competitive play, underscoring a balanced rivalry at this stage.
- New York City FC had three players unavailable in their last match against D.C. United, though no explicit injury list for this match is reported. Chicago Fireβs injury status is not detailed in current data, suggesting no major absences reported before this key fixture.
- The match is played at Chicagoβs home venue, Soldier Field, with potentially high fan support for the home side. Both teams are aware of the playoff stakes, intensifying the competitive environment. Weather and other environmental conditions remain typical for September in Chicago with no major disruptions noted.
- Both teams are highly motivated given the proximity to playoffs and the standings pressure. New York City FC is looking to reclaim momentum after a setback and secure points to improve seeding, while Chicago Fire wants to upset to climb in the table and keep postseason hopes alive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Fire: 109, New York City FC: 218, Draw: 275 | Chicago Fire win | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Chicago Fire -0.5: 104, New York City FC +50: -139 | Chicago Fire -0.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 131, Under 3.5: -175 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Fire 9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Chicago Fire at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given New York City FCβs marginally better season performance and previous decisive win against Chicago Fire, coupled with Chicagoβs strong recent unbeaten streak, the match is likely to be a close contest. A predicted narrow win for New York City FC is expected, but a draw remains a plausible outcome due to Chicagoβs home advantage and form.
Predicted Score: Chicago Fire 2 – 1 New York City FC