Match Analysis: CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-25
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Saputo Stadium, Montreal, Canada
Game Overview
CF Montréal will host FC Cincinnati in an MLS clash where FC Cincinnati currently holds a higher league position (2nd) compared to CF Montréal (15th). Cincinnati has shown a stronger recent form and overall historical edge in head-to-head meetings. The matchup is expected to be competitive with both teams having mixed recent results but Cincinnati's away performances and overall goal-scoring capability give them a slight advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- In the last 5 matches, CF Montréal has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 1.4 goals on average and conceding 2.2. FC Cincinnati’s last 5 matches show 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.0 goals per game. Cincinnati is positioned better in the league and has better average points per game in head-to-head history (2.1 PPG vs 1.7 for Montréal).
- Out of 12 meetings since 2019, FC Cincinnati has 5 wins, CF Montréal 4 wins, and 3 draws. Cincinnati has scored 25 goals compared to Montréal's 20. Matches between these teams tend to be high scoring with about 3.67 goals per match on average and a high chance of both teams scoring (BTTS). Historically, Cincinnati has a 50% win rate versus Montréal’s 33%, with draws at 17%.
- No specific injury data available from the current sources, but injury impact is likely neutral or minimal based on available information.
- The game is played at Saputo Stadium, giving home advantage to CF Montréal. Weather and pitch conditions have not been specified but are presumably typical for Montreal in late June. Motivation and match importance might favor Cincinnati due to their higher league standing.
- FC Cincinnati, currently ranked 2nd in the league, will be strongly motivated to secure points and maintain their position, while CF Montréal, struggling at 15th, will seek to improve form and gain valuable home points to climb the table.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CF Montreal: 200, FC Cincinnati: 125, Draw: 260 | FC Cincinnati to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | CF Montreal: 25 -118, FC Cincinnati: -0.25 -102 | FC Cincinnati -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: 100, Under 2.75: -120 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Cincinnati 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 30% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
FC Cincinnati is predicted to narrowly win or the game could end in a draw. Given their superior form, league position, and historical edge, Cincinnati has the advantage. However, home advantage and unpredictability from Montréal mean the game could also see a draw with goals scored by both sides.
Predicted Score: 1-2