Match Analysis: CF Estrela vs Rio Ave FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora, Portugal
Game Overview
A tightly matched Liga Portugal game between CF Estrela Amadora and Rio Ave FC, with both clubs displaying middling form and close historical outcomes in head-to-head encounters.
Key Factors to Consider
- CF Estrela ranks 15th and has struggled at home with a high loss rate (50%), scoring an average of 0.75 goals per match while conceding 1.0. Rio Ave, ranked 12th, performs slightly better away with 3 draws in 4 away games and an average of 1.38 goals scored but concedes 1.63 goals on average.
- In 12 meetings since 2003, Rio Ave has dominated with 6 wins versus Estrela's 2, and 4 draws. Recent encounters have seen Rio Ave maintain a slight edge, but Estrela has won 2 of their last few home games against Rio Ave. The average goals scored in their matches is moderately low at around 2.3 to 2.8 per game.
- No specific injury reports are currently available for either team, indicating a likely full-strength squad for both sides.
- The match is played at Estádio José Gomes, which adds some home advantage for Estrela Amadora, but their inconsistency at home tempers this. No significant external factors such as weather disruptions or scheduling congestion are detected.
- Both teams sit in lower-mid table with Rio Ave slightly higher, possibly pushing harder to avoid relegation dangers. Estrela has the urgency to improve home form, potentially increasing their motivation, though Rio Ave’s resilience in away matches suggests balanced motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 162, away: 172, draw: 220 | Rio Ave FC | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | home: -115, away: -105 | Rio Ave FC -0.0 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rio Ave FC 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rio Ave FC at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Rio Ave FC win. Spread: Rio Ave FC -0.0. Over/Under: Under 2.25 goals.
Predicted Score: 0-1