Match Analysis: Ceará vs Fluminense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Castelão (Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil)
Game Overview
In this Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A clash, mid-table Ceará hosts Fluminense, who sit just above them in the standings. Both teams are in inconsistent form, and recent head-to-head history slightly favors Fluminense. Ceará’s home advantage could be a factor, but both teams have struggled to consistently convert chances into goals recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ceará’s form is W-L-D-L-L-L, indicating a rough patch. Fluminense’s recent record is D-W-L-W-L-L, showing a bit more resilience but still inconsistent. Both teams are conceding more than they are scoring, with Fluminense particularly leaky in defense, conceding 2.0 goals per game in their last five (compared to 1.0 for Ceará). Fluminense has averaged 0.4 goals per game in their last five, a concerning lack of offensive momentum, while Ceará has averaged 0.6 goals per game over the same span[2].
- Fluminense leads the historical head-to-head (8–4–3 in 15 matches since 2005), including wins in the last two encounters[2]. Fluminense are favorites in H2H, but the gap is not large enough to guarantee a result in this match[1][2]. These matches tend to be tight, with less than three goals scored in 70% of the last five meetings[2].
- Fluminense is missing Ganso, Nonato (both midfield), and Manoel Messias. Ceará also has three players out: Dieguinho, Luiz Otavio, and Marcos Victor[1]. These absences may affect both teams’ attacking creativity and defensive solidity.
- No major external factors reported; weather, pitch, or crowd are not expected to be atypical for this type of match.
- With both teams in mid-table, motivation is likely focused on climbing the table for a stronger finish. However, neither is in danger of relegation or pushing for a title, which may affect urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | {Ceará: +195, Fluminense: +159, Draw: +195} | Fluminense or Draw (Covering both for value) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | {Ceará: 0 +105, Fluminense: 0 -125} | Ceará +0 (Pick’em/Halftime Draw) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | {Over 2: -105, Under 2: -115} | Under 2 goals | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fluminense 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This is a close matchup, but Fluminense’s slightly superior recent form and historical edge might give them a minimal advantage. However, their defensive frailties and poor recent attacking stats make a clear win risky to back. Expect a low-scoring, tight game, possibly decided by a single goal or set piece. A draw is a plausible outcome, especially given both teams’ struggles in front of goal[2].
Predicted Score: 1-1 Draw
