Match Analysis: Ceará vs Fluminense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Fluminense host Ceará in a Brazil Serie A match where Fluminense aims to consolidate their position in the Copa Libertadores zone, while Ceará looks to challenge the strong home side and disrupt their form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fluminense have an excellent recent home form with 80% wins in the last 10 home matches, showing both attacking and defensive solidity. In contrast, Ceará have struggled away with only 20% wins in their last 10 away games, indicating vulnerability.
- In 14 historical matches, Fluminense hold a better record with 6 home wins and 18 goals scored versus Ceará's 4 away wins and 12 goals. The last match was a narrow 1-0 away win for Ceará, but overall Fluminense have the statistical edge.
- Both teams have confirmed lineups with no major injury concerns highlighted that would drastically affect gameplay.
- The match is played at the iconic Maracanã with favorable weather (21°C), potentially boosting home advantage. No disruption or scheduling issues noted.
- Fluminense are motivated by their goal to secure a Copa Libertadores spot, offering strong incentive to maintain form, while Ceará is motivated to spoil the home party but faces tougher form and away challenges.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 195, away: 159, draw: 195 | Fluminense | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | ceara: 105, fluminense: -125 | Fluminense -0 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over_2: -105, under_2: -115 | Under 2 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fluminense 30% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win (moneyline); Fluminense -0 spread; Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0