Match Analysis: Cagliari vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Italy
Game Overview
The Serie A match between Cagliari (13th place) and Parma (16th place) is scheduled at Unipol Domus in Cagliari. Both teams have shown modest performances recently, with Cagliari slightly stronger at home. Parma struggles with offensive productivity and defense, ranking lower in the standings. Previous encounters suggest balanced but cautious play.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cagliari has demonstrated moderate competitiveness in the Serie A with a workable offense led by Sebastiano Luperto and some defensive vulnerabilities. Parma has struggled with only 1 goal scored in recent recorded match data and defensive issues, conceding multiple goals.
- Recent Serie A meetings have been closely contested, with Cagliari and Parma trading results. Historical data shows no clear domination, though Cagliari benefits from home advantage. Previous games ended with marginal scores.
- Current injury status is not explicitly detailed in available data; however, no major absences reported for either side. Monitoring lineups close to match time is advisable for updates.
- Match is played at Cagliariβs home stadium, Unipol Domus, providing them support and familiar conditions. Weather and pitch conditions are typical for Italian September.
- Both teams are mid-lower table sides seeking crucial points to avoid relegation battles, increasing motivation for a competitive and tactical match.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cagliari: 116, Parma: 260, Draw: 220 | Cagliari win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Cagliari -0.25: -118, Parma +25: -102 | Cagliari -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -102, Under 2.25: -118 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cagliari 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cagliari is favored to edge out Parma considering home advantage, better recent offensive output, and more stable defense. Expect a closely contested match with limited goal scoring, favoring Cagliari to win narrowly or draw.
Predicted Score: 1-0