Match Analysis: CA Osasuna vs Real Sociedad – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona, Spain
Game Overview
The La Liga match between CA Osasuna and Real Sociedad at Estadio El Sadar features two teams struggling near the relegation zone, with Osasuna currently 16th and Real Sociedad 14th. Osasuna has won 3, drawn 2, and lost 7 of their 12 games, scoring 9 and conceding 13 goals, while Real Sociedad has 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 17. Osasuna has shown home strength, gaining 10 of their 11 points at El Sadar, while Real Sociedad's away form is modest with 3 points from 3 draws. Both sides have disciplinary challenges and some injury issues, but Osasuna seeks to build on recent success against Sociedad, including breaking a long winless streak at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Osasuna is in poor form with only 1 point from their last 4 matches and a total of 3 wins this season. Real Sociedad is marginally better, accumulating 8 points from the last 4 games and standing 2 points clear of relegation danger. Osasuna relies on home advantage, having secured the majority of their points at El Sadar, while Sociedad has struggled to win away.
- Osasuna has won the last 3 league meetings against Real Sociedad, ending a 17-match winless streak against them dating back to 2012, including 9 straight home matches. The most recent Copa del Rey meeting in Anoeta ended with Real Sociedad progressing, adding intensity to this fixture.
- Osasuna will miss key goalscorer Budimir and also Rosier and Iker Benito. However, they are regaining some players like Aimar Oroz, Torró, and Boyomo. Moncayola is doubtful. Real Sociedad has no major injury alerts reported but will need to see if they bring full strength to the match.
- The match could be impacted by snow in Pamplona around kickoff, potentially affecting playing conditions and ball movement. Both teams are under pressure due to their proximity to the relegation zone, with playing under cold weather conditions likely challenging defensive organization.
- Osasuna is highly motivated to secure a home victory to climb out of the relegation zone, especially after recent poor results. Real Sociedad aims to maintain their slightly safer position in the table and extend their unbeaten away streak in La Liga, pushing for valuable points in a tough fixture.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CA Osasuna: 1.78, Real Sociedad: 1.75, Draw: 2 | CA Osasuna to win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | CA Osasuna: -108 (0 spread), Real Sociedad: -112 (0 spread) | CA Osasuna +0 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 1.02, Under 2.25: 1.22 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | CA Osasuna 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: CA Osasuna at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Osasuna's recent home successes against Real Sociedad, their motivation to escape relegation, and Real Sociedad's away struggles, a tight contest is expected with Osasuna slightly favored to win. However, weather conditions and injuries suggest a low-scoring game with a possible draw if Sociedad's defense holds strong.
Predicted Score: 1-0