Match Analysis: CA Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 4:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio El Sadar
Game Overview
A closely matched La Liga game between mid-table CA Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano, both showing moderate recent form. Osasuna have the home advantage but their form is mixed. Rayo Vallecano are slightly inconsistent but capable of an upset.
Key Factors to Consider
- Osasuna have a 1-0-2 record overall with 3 points, undefeated at home (1-0-0). Rayo Vallecano have 1-1-1 overall and won an away game recently. Both teams have similar goalscoring and conceding trends with low over/under results.
- Historical encounters suggest a balanced rivalry with many draws and tight scorelines. Simulations estimate Osasuna win probability ~42.5%, Rayo win ~30%, draw ~27%, signaling a tight contest.
- No significant injuries reported affecting starting lineups for either side as of now, suggesting both teams can field near full strength.
- Playing at El Sadar provides Osasuna a solid home advantage, but no extreme environmental or scheduling factors impacting either team.
- Both teams prize league points to improve position early in the season. Osasuna seeks home form consolidation, while Rayo looks to build momentum on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: 154, away: 188, draw: 220 | Osasuna | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | home: -125, away: 105 | Osasuna -0 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | over: 100, under: -120 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | CA Osasuna 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: CA Osasuna at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Osasuna win; Spread: Osasuna -0; Over/Under: Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-1