Match Analysis: Burnley vs Nottingham Forest – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Turf Moor
Game Overview
Burnley hosts Nottingham Forest in a tight Premier League contest. Burnley seeks recovery after mixed early season results, leveraging solid defensive organization and home advantage. Nottingham Forest approach with a somewhat fragile defense and inconsistent form but have shown capability to compete.
Key Factors to Consider
- Burnley has shown resilience against top teams but an inconsistent form with a notable win against Sunderland. Nottingham Forest have struggled defensively with heavy losses but demonstrated ability to secure points against mid-table rivals.
- Historically competitive with narrow margins; Burnley holds slight advantage at home, exploiting Forest's defensive frailties.
- Nottingham Forest face defensive injuries impairing their backline solidity. Burnley lineup appears stable without key absences.
- Venue plays a crucial role with home advantage favoring Burnley at Turf Moor. Weather and pitch conditions expected to be neutral.
- Burnley motivated to capitalize on home ground to stabilize season. Nottingham Forest aim to arrest poor away form and prove competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley +224, Nottingham Forest +118, Draw +232 | Burnley | β β β ββ 62% |
Spread | Burnley -0.5 -152, Nottingham Forest +50 +114 | Burnley -0.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 -109, Under 2.5 -122 | Over 2.5 Goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Burnley at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Burnley to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 spread, with the match expected to have more than 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1