Match Analysis: Burnley vs Millwall – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-03
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Turf Moor, Burnley, England
Game Overview
Burnley, ranking second in the Championship, hosts Millwall, who are seventh. Burnley boasts a strong home performance, while Millwall has inconsistent away results.
Key Factors to Consider
- Burnley has consistently performed well both at home and away, with recent wins against strong teams. Millwall has shown resilience but mostly at home.
- In their last meeting, Millwall won 1-0. Historically, Burnley and Millwall have closely matched head-to-head statistics, with Burnley winning 7 out of 19 matches and Millwall winning 6.
- There are no reported key injuries from recent data that would significantly impact the match.
- Neither team faces significant external pressures like weather conditions or physical exhaustion due to recent scheduling.
- Burnley is highly motivated to secure a strong league position, while Millwall aims to climb higher in the standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley: -160, Millwall: 460, Draw: 270 | Burnley win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Burnley: -0.75 -125, Millwall: 75 105 | Burnley to cover | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over: 2.25 -120, Under: 2.25 100 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Burnley is likely to win given their strong home record and overall performance in the season.
Predicted Score: 2-0 in favor of Burnley