Match Analysis: Burnley vs Liverpool – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Turf Moor
Game Overview
Liverpool enters this early season EPL matchup as the dominant favorite, having won 9 of their last 11 meetings against Burnley and currently exhibiting strong form with three wins in three matches. Burnley, with a less impressive record and standing lower in the table, will face a tough challenge at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liverpool is undefeated this season with 3 wins and +4 goal difference, showing strong attacking ability being top scorers in the division. Burnley has 1 win and 2 losses, scoring fewer goals and conceding more, indicating a weaker defensive setup.
- Liverpool boast a 9-1-1 record against Burnley in their last 11 encounters, indicating a clear historical dominance.
- No major injuries reported affecting Liverpoolβs starting lineup. Burnleyβs injury situation is stable but lacks star firepower, with some key players potentially less impactful due to form or game time.
- The game is at Turf Moor, but Liverpoolβs superior tactical depth and momentum should neutralize the home advantage. No weather or travel issues reported.
- Liverpool have strong motivation to maintain a perfect start and capitalize on momentum in September, a month where they have a historical 18-2-3 record. Burnley will aim to prove resilience at home but overall have lower motivation driven primarily by underdog status.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley +740, Liverpool -319, Draw +420 | Liverpool | β β β β β 79% |
Spread | Burnley +1.5 -112, Liverpool -1.5 -118 | Liverpool -1.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 +125, Under 3.5 -167 | Under 3.5 | β β β ββ 67% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Liverpool -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liverpool moneyline, Liverpool -1.5 spread, Under 3.5 goals
Predicted Score: 0-2