Match Analysis: Burnley vs Leeds United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Turf Moor
Game Overview
Burnley and Leeds United face off at Turf Moor with both teams struggling in the lower half of the Premier League table; Burnley is 18th with 4 points while Leeds sits 15th with 8 points after 7 matches, both showing limited offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Burnley has scored 1.0 goal per game but conceded 2.14 on average, ranking 19th defensively, with only one win in seven matches. Leeds averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game, showing slightly better defensive form and more consistency overall.
- Recent historical matchups favor Leeds marginally with consistent performances and better recent points tally against Burnley, who have struggled to maintain form at home.
- No explicit recent major injury updates impacting key players were found, suggesting both teams likely field close to full-strength squads.
- The game is at Burnleyβs Turf Moor pitch, providing home advantage which could help their defensively frail side to contain Leedsβ modest attack.
- Burnley are desperate to climb out of the relegation zone and prove form, giving them strong motivation. Leeds aim to further distance themselves from relegation threats, having more points but needing to maintain momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley: +224, Leeds United: +120, Draw: +226 | Leeds United | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Burnley +50: -155, Leeds United -0.5: +116 | Leeds United -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: +115, Under 2.5: -153 | Under 2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Leeds United 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Leeds United at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Leeds United moneyline win
Predicted Score: 0-1