Match Analysis: Burnley vs Arsenal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Turf Moor
Game Overview
Arsenal, league leaders on a strong winning streak and defensive form, face Burnley, struggling near the relegation zone with low offensive productivity. Arsenal are clear favorites based on recent results and statistics.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arsenal have won 8 consecutive matches across all competitions and kept 6 clean sheets recently. Burnley have lost 5 of 9 games this season and exhibit the lowest expected goals (xG) per 90 in the league (0.76).
- Arsenal have dominated recent encounters, conceding only once in their last four matches against Burnley and maintaining a strong winning record.
- Burnley have long-term absences including Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, and Zeki Amdouni. Arsenal's squad is relatively healthy heading into the match.
- Match at Burnley's Turf Moor may grant some home advantage, but Burnley's recent form at home includes losses and tight wins mostly against fellow promoted teams.
- Burnley are motivated to acquire points to avoid relegation battles; Arsenal have motivation to maintain top position with momentum and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arsenal -370, Burnley +950, Draw +440 | Arsenal | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Arsenal -1.5 -123, Burnley +1.5 -107 | Arsenal -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -138, Under 2.5 +104 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arsenal -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arsenal win moneyline; Arsenal -1.5 spread; Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 0-2