Match Analysis: Brighton and Hove Albion vs Brentford – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: American Express Stadium, Falmer, England
Game Overview
Brighton & Hove Albion host Brentford in a Premier League clash at the American Express Stadium. Both teams are closely matched in the league table, with Brighton currently 11th and Brentford 12th, each with 16 points after 11 games. Brighton has shown solid home form, while Brentford struggles away, losing four of their last five road matches and remaining winless in their last four visits to Brighton in the top flight.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brighton has a record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a +2 goal difference. Brentford has 5 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a 0 goal difference. Brighton's home form is stronger, while Brentford's away record is poor, having lost four of their last five away games.
- Brentford has not won in their last four Premier League trips to Brighton. The most recent meeting was a 4-2 win for Brentford in April 2025, but Brighton held Brentford to a 0-0 draw in December 2024. Brighton has a slight edge in recent head-to-head results at home.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- Brighton enjoys home advantage, which is significant given Brentford's poor away form. The weather is expected to be mild with no anticipated disruptions. The match is mid-table, so both teams are motivated to climb the standings.
- Both teams are fighting for mid-table security and potential European qualification. Brighton will be motivated to maintain their home form, while Brentford seeks to break their away losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -113, away: 280, draw: 260 | Brighton & Hove Albion | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | home: -0.5 -115, away: 50 -115 | Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -147, under: 111 | Over 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brighton and Hove Albion 109% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Brighton and Hove Albion at 109% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brighton & Hove Albion are favored to win this match due to their stronger home record and Brentford's struggles on the road. A narrow victory for Brighton is the most likely outcome, with a draw also possible given the close league positions and recent head-to-head results.
Predicted Score: Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 Brentford