Match Analysis: Bragantino-SP vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
Game Overview
The match is part of the 36th round of the Brasileirão Série A 2025 season. Red Bull Bragantino is hosting Fortaleza at their home stadium. Bragantino currently holds 45 points and sits 9th in the league, while Fortaleza has 34 points and is battling to avoid relegation, positioned 18th. Fortaleza has gained some momentum with recent unbeaten streaks and key player returns, making this game important for both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bragantino has a stronger position in the league with 45 points and a mid-table placement, showing stable form. Fortaleza has struggled this season but recently improved their form with six games unbeaten in the Brasileirao and earned a crucial victory against Bahia. Bragantino's home advantage and higher points total contrast with Fortaleza's fight to escape relegation.
- Only one match this season between the two teams, with Fortaleza securing a 3-1 away win against Bragantino in July 2025, indicating Fortaleza can perform well on the road against this opponent.
- Fortaleza likely benefits from the return of key players Lucas Sasha (midfield), Kuscevic, and Brítez (defense), improving their squad depth and stability. Fortaleza has no suspensions but four players remain sidelined (goalkeeper João Ricardo, midfielders Rodrigo and Lucca Prior, attacker Marinho). Bragantino's injury and suspension status are not specifically noted.
- The match is at Bragantino's home ground in Bragança Paulista, potentially favoring the home team. Fortaleza's travel demands for away games and the psychological boost from recent results may influence dynamics.
- Bragantino, sitting mid-table, may focus on securing European competition qualification or a strong season finish. Fortaleza is motivated by relegation avoidance, needing points urgently to climb out of the bottom three, intensifying their competitive urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bragantino-SP: 111, Fortaleza: 235, Draw: 240 | Bragantino-SP Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Bragantino-SP -0.25: -118, Fortaleza +25: -102 | Bragantino-SP -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bragantino-SP 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bragantino-SP at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A closely contested match is expected, with Bragantino favored due to home advantage and higher league position but Fortaleza capable of pulling an upset driven by their recent form and key player returns. A narrow home win or draw seems most plausible.
Predicted Score: 2-1