Match Analysis: Bournemouth vs Newcastle United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Vitality Stadium
Game Overview
A tightly contested Premier League match with Bournemouth currently in strong form at home, holding a 3-1 record recently, and Newcastle showing mixed results but with a slightly better historical model simulation edge.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bournemouth are 3-1 in their last 5 matches and undefeated in 2 home games this season with solid defense. Newcastle have a 1-1-2 recent EPL record and limited goal scoring, but simulations slightly favor them with a 38.5% win probability.
- Recent encounters suggest Bournemouth have an edge with Newcastle winless in last five head-to-head matches, supporting Bournemouth's home advantage momentum.
- Bournemouth miss key defenders but have a mostly fit squad expected; Newcastle will face fatigue effects from a recent demanding match against Barcelona impacting lineup freshness.
- Newcastle's European commitments may cause tiredness; Bournemouth have home crowd support and momentum after recent wins.
- Bournemouth motivated by strong league standing and home form; Newcastle motivated to recover and assert after mixed results.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bournemouth +133, Newcastle +188, Draw +240 | Bournemouth | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Bournemouth -0.5 +128, Newcastle +50 -172 | Bournemouth -0.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 -126, Under 2.5 -105 | Over 2.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bournemouth 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 -1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Bournemouth at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bournemouth to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 spread, with the game likely going over 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1