Match Analysis: Bournemouth vs Fulham – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-03
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Vitality Stadium
Game Overview
Bournemouth and Fulham face off in a competitive Premier League match at Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth currently sits 6th in the league and has shown robust home form, including 14 points from their last seven home games after an early-season slump. Fulham is 11th, coming off a heavy 3-1 defeat to Aston Villa and looking to recover. Bournemouth has the historical edge with more wins and strong recent results against Fulham. Both teams have key offensive players contributing goals and assists, making this an intriguing contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bournemouth have been strong especially at home, ranked 6th with 8 goals for and 7 against, with 3 clean sheets. Fulham, sitting 11th, have struggled recently away, losing their last three Premier League matches at Bournemouth and four consecutive away to the same. Bournemouth's recent home performance contrasts with Fulham's inconsistent away form.
- Historically, Bournemouth have won 16 of 41 matches against Fulham, with Fulham winning 12 and 13 draws. In recent Premier League meetings, Bournemouth have lost only 2 of their last 16 matches against Fulham and only once in their last 8 games. Fulham have lost their last 3 away matches to Bournemouth, a streak not faced before.
- No detailed current injury reports are provided in the sources, limiting injury impact assessment.
- Playing at home gives Bournemouth an advantage, as does their recent point accumulation at Vitality Stadium. Fulham's recent psychological setback from their 3-1 loss could impact their morale negatively.
- Bournemouth will be motivated to maintain or improve their top-six standing and capitalize on home advantage. Fulham aims to bounce back from recent heavy defeat and break their poor away streak against Bournemouth.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bournemouth: -117, Fulham: 295, Draw: 260 | Bournemouth win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Bournemouth -0.5: -119, Fulham +50: -111 | Bournemouth -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -117, Under 2.5: -113 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bournemouth 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Bournemouth at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bournemouth are favored to win given their home strength, better recent form, and historical dominance over Fulham in this fixture. The match is likely to be competitive but Bournemouthβs chances of victory are higher.
Predicted Score: 2-1 Bournemouth