Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Botafogo hosts Vasco da Gama in a high-stakes Brasileirão Betano clash, with both teams vying for crucial points in the league standings. Botafogo currently sits 6th, while Vasco da Gama is in 9th, making this a pivotal match for their respective campaigns. The rivalry is historic, with both clubs boasting passionate fanbases and a competitive head-to-head record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo has shown mixed form, with 3 wins, 3 losses, and 4 draws in their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals per game. Vasco da Gama has been in good form, securing back-to-back away victories and showing strong attacking intent, averaging 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 games. Vasco also boasts a solid defensive record, conceding only 1.4 goals per match in their recent outings.
- The historical head-to-head record is closely contested. In the last 30 meetings, Botafogo has won 13 times, Vasco da Gama 9 times, and 8 draws. In the last 5 encounters, Botafogo has won 3, while Vasco has won 2. The most recent H2H match ended in a penalty shootout victory for Vasco. Overall, Botafogo has a slight edge in recent form and home advantage.
- No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups, with Botafogo likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation and Vasco da Gama opting for a similar setup.
- The match will be played at Estádio Nilton Santos, Botafogo's home ground, which provides a significant advantage due to familiar conditions and strong home support. Weather conditions are expected to be favorable, with no adverse impact anticipated.
- Both teams are highly motivated to secure a win. Botafogo aims to solidify their position in the top half of the table, while Vasco da Gama seeks to close the gap on the top six. The rivalry adds extra intensity, with both clubs eager to claim bragging rights.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: -108, Vasco da Gama: 300, Draw: 240 | Botafogo | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Botafogo: -0.5 -108, Vasco da Gama: 50 -112 | Botafogo -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -120, Under: 2.5 100 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This match is expected to be closely contested, with both teams capable of scoring. Botafogo's home advantage and recent form give them a slight edge, but Vasco da Gama's attacking prowess and defensive solidity make them a formidable opponent. A narrow home win or a draw is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: 1-0