Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Flamengo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-15
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos
Game Overview
This Brasileirão Serie A clash features Botafogo hosting Flamengo in round 28. Flamengo are slight favorites based on historical strength, current form, and odds, but Botafogo's home advantage and recent competitiveness make this a closely contested match.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo currently demonstrate stronger league form and more consistent scoring (recently averaging ~1.5 goals per game), while Botafogo have shown resilience at home but less firepower. Recent matches show Flamengo's ability to control second halves and convert chances.
- Historically, Flamengo lead with 26 wins to Botafogo's 12 in 57 meetings; 33% ended in draws. Interestingly, draw rates are higher in first halves (56%) but Flamengo show more late dominance. The last match ended 0-0 at Maracanã, indicating tight play between these sides.
- No major absences reported for either squad, suggesting both teams will field close to full strength, preserving competitive balance.
- Boutafogo have home ground advantage with the match played at Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, but Flamengo's stadium familiarity and travel to Rio de Janeiro (both teams based there) reduce typical away disadvantages.
- Flamengo are pushing to solidify a top-table finish and seek automatic continental qualification, motivating aggressive play. Botafogo aim to secure safety or a mid-table finish, likely adopting a cautious but opportunistic approach.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo: +285, Flamengo: +107, Draw: +212 | Flamengo | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Botafogo +25: +108, Flamengo -0.25: -128 | Flamengo -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: +100, Under 2.25: -120 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo 24% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Flamengo at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win on the moneyline, Flamengo -0.25 on spread, and Under 2.25 goals in over/under market.
Predicted Score: 1-2