Match Analysis: Bologna vs SC Freiburg – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-02
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Game Overview
Bologna and SC Freiburg meet for the first time in UEFA Europa League group play, with Bologna looking to bounce back from a narrow UEL opener defeat and a recent league draw, while Freiburg arrives on the back of unbeaten form in Europe, including a strong start in the current campaign.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bologna lost 1-0 to Aston Villa in their Europa League opener and drew 2-2 against Lecce, showing some inconsistency. They have strong home form in European competitions with only 2 losses in 31 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Freiburg won their UEL opener against Basel 2-1 and drew 1-1 with Hoffenheim, extending their unbeaten run to 4 games; they have scored in 16 consecutive games but have recent struggles scoring away in the UEL (0 wins, 0 goals scored in last 3 away UEL matches).
- This is the first-ever meeting between Bologna and SC Freiburg, so no direct historical data is available.
- No specific injury updates were available in the provided data for either team ahead of this match.
- Playing at home in front of their passionate crowd is a big advantage for Bologna. Freiburg's current form and confidence might be balanced by their difficulty scoring on UEL away trips. Weather or other external conditions were not specified.
- Bologna must secure points to avoid an early group stage deficit, still smarting from their previous defeat. Freiburg wants to build on their strong UEL start and maintain their unbeaten run, making motivation high on both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | bologna: 1.08, sc_freiburg: 2.55, draw: 2.3 | Bologna to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | bologna_-0.25: -130, sc_freiburg_+25: 100 | Bologna -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | over_2.5: 100, under_2.5: -130 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Bologna at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering Bologna's strong home European form and Freiburgβs difficulty scoring on UEL away trips, the prediction leans towards a narrow Bologna victory or a draw with goals scored by both teams.
Predicted Score: 2-1