Match Analysis: Bologna vs Genoa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Italy
Game Overview
Bologna hosts Genoa in an early Serie A fixture with Bologna favored but both teams showing uneven recent form and injury concerns.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bologna has a weaker recent form (draws and losses) and sits low in league standings with 3 points from 3 matches; Genoa slightly better motivated with 2 points but also inconsistent results.
- Historically close, with Genoa holding a slight edge in wins (6 to Bologna's 5) over 13 matches; previous season's meeting ended 3-1 in Genoa's favor away.
- Bologna missing key defensive players such as Charalampos Lykogiannis and Jhon Lucumi; Genoa lineup appears relatively stable though specific injury reports are limited.
- Game at Bologna's home ground gives them slight advantage; no significant weather or travel issues reported.
- Both teams are early in season seeking points; Bologna motivated to bounce back home after poor start, Genoa aiming to capitalize on recent positive momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna -120, Genoa +380, Draw +235 | Bologna | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Bologna -0.5 -120, Genoa +50 +100 | Bologna -0.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.0 -120, Under 2.0 +100 | Under 2.0 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bologna to win the match narrowly with under 2.5 goals total
Predicted Score: 1-0