Match Analysis: Benfica vs Tondela – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio da Luz
Game Overview
Benfica hosts Tondela in a Portugal Primeira Liga match. Benfica have historically dominated this matchup, with a strong recent form, and significant home advantage. Tondela struggles notably against Benfica and currently sits near the bottom of the league standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Benfica won 12 of the last 14 meetings with Tondela, scoring on average 2.5 goals per match and conceding only 0.57. They also have a strong start this season while Tondela has lost both their opening matches and is 17th in the table.
- Out of 14 encounters, Benfica have 12 wins and 1 draw versus only 1 Tondela win. Benfica scored 35 goals against Tondela’s 8 across these matches, showing dominance especially at home.
- No major injury concerns announced for Benfica. Tondela’s key players have some minor fitness issues but no confirmed absences, yielding slightly weakened squad depth and quality.
- The match is at Benfica's home stadium, Estádio da Luz, offering a significant home ground advantage. Weather and travel impact are minimal.
- Benfica, currently mid-table, are motivated to push for European qualification spots and maintain home dominance. Tondela faces pressure from relegation zone proximity, but morale may be low after recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | benfica: -725, tondela: +1500, draw: +700 | Benfica | ★★★★☆ 87% |
Spread | benfica_-2: -122, tondela_+2: +102 | Benfica -2 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | over_3: -118, under_3: -102 | Over 3 Goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Benfica -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Benfica to Win
Predicted Score: 3-0