Match Analysis: Bahia vs Sao Paulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Brazil
Game Overview
A Brasileirão Série A fixture between Bahia (home) and São Paulo (away) promises a balanced but slightly home-favored contest. Bahia shows stronger goalscoring at home, while São Paulo has not won away this season and is struggling for form on the road. The head-to-head is close over the last 30+ meetings, but recent trends show a lack of goals and BTTS.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia averages 1.56 goals per match at home, with 71.43% of home games seeing over 1.5 goals. São Paulo averages 1.21 goals per match and is less prolific on the road, with 56.25% of away games over 1.5 goals and just 31.25% over 2.5. São Paulo has not won an away game this season in Serie A[1][2][3].
- Bahia has won 10 of the last 30 direct matches, São Paulo 13, with 7 draws. Average goals per match between them is 2.10. Recent meetings have seen both teams fail to score, with no BTTS in the last 2 matches[1][3].
- No significant injury news available from current sources.
- Home advantage for Bahia is notable, but no specific external disruptions such as weather or travel issues are reported.
- Bahia is motivated to solidify their home form, while São Paulo aims to turn around their poor away record. Neither team is in crisis, but both will be eager for points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia: 111 | São Paulo: 280 | Draw: 218 | Bahia or Draw | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Bahia: -0.25 -125 | São Paulo: 25 105 | Bahia -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 2 -120 | Under: 2 100 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia -11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia is favored at home, given their superior home scoring and São Paulo's poor away form. However, recent head-to-head data suggests a tight game, possibly low-scoring. Expect a narrow Bahia win or a draw, with a slight preference for under 2 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0 or 1-1 (most likely 1-0 to Bahia)