Match Analysis: Bahia vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Brazil
Game Overview
Bahia hosts Fortaleza in a crucial Brazilian Serie A encounter at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia currently sits 5th in the league, showcasing stronger form and higher points, while Fortaleza struggles around 19th position. The match is significant as Bahia aims to consolidate their top-table status, while Fortaleza fights to escape relegation zones.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia holds a positive form with 15 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, scoring 42 goals and conceding 38. Fortaleza’s form is weaker: 7 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, with 28 goals for and 45 against. Bahia’s home form is solid compared to Fortaleza’s generally poor away results.
- Historically, the teams are fairly evenly matched: over their last 16 meetings, Bahia and Fortaleza each won 6 times, with 4 draws. Recent encounters show Bahia slightly stronger, including a 2-1 home win and a 1-1 draw earlier in the 2025 season.
- Current detailed injury updates for key players are not available in the provided data, limiting assessment of squad availability.
- No significant external factors such as weather, referee issues, or off-field controversies were mentioned. Venue and scheduling favor the home team Bahia with familiar playing conditions.
- Bahia is motivated to secure points to maintain or improve their top-5 league standing, with potential continental competition implications. Fortaleza battles relegation threats, increasing their urgency but possibly under pressure playing away.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bahia: -179, Fortaleza: 440, Draw: 325 | Bahia win | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Spread | Bahia: -1 100, Fortaleza: 1 -120 | Bahia to cover -1 spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -122, Under 2.5: 102 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bahia 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 21% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia is favored to win due to form, home advantage, and historical head-to-head results. A tight game is expected, but Fortaleza is likely to struggle against Bahia’s stronger attack and more stable defense.
Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of Bahia