Match Analysis: Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bahia Home Stadium
Game Overview
Bahia hosts Atletico Mineiro in a closely matched Serie A game with both teams in solid form. Bahia has a strong home record with four consecutive wins, while Atletico Mineiro is unbeaten in their last eight games showing resilience on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia has won 6 of 12 matches scoring 14 goals with strong offensive output at home. Atletico Mineiro holds 5 wins and 5 draws in 12 matches, scoring 13 goals and showing consistent form.
- The H2H is balanced with both teams having 5 wins each and 4 draws in their last 14 encounters. Bahia has been especially strong at home with only one loss versus Atletico Mineiro in the last 12 meetings.
- No major injury concerns reported currently for either side, enabling both teams close to full strength.
- No significant external factors such as weather or travel fatigue reported that could heavily impact the match.
- Bahia motivated to maintain strong home form and climb the table, Atletico Mineiro motivated to extend unbeaten streak and gain points away.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia 1.30, Draw 2.00, Atletico Mineiro 2.55 | Bahia | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Bahia -0.25 (-108), Atletico Mineiro +25 (-112) | Bahia -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (1.05), Under 2.25 (-1.25) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia 27% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bahia at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia to win on the moneyline with an expected tight goal margin, favoring an under 2.25 goals total given both teams' recent defensive solidity and tactical approaches.
Predicted Score: 1-0