Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Zwolle – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Game Overview
AZ Alkmaar enters this Eredivisie fixture in strong form, placed 4th with 10 points from four matches, showing offensive efficiency and solid home performance. PEC Zwolle is 12th with 6 points, having mixed results including a recent heavy loss away to Ajax. AZ Alkmaar is favored given their superior recent record, stronger squad form, and historic dominance in this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar has three wins and a draw in their last four matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 4, while PEC Zwolle has two wins and two losses, scoring 4 but conceding 5, including a 1-3 defeat to Ajax.
- AZ Alkmaar has won four of the last five encounters against PEC Zwolle, including a recent 2-0 victory.
- No major injuries reported affecting starting lineups; both teams appear near full strength.
- Home advantage strongly favors AZ Alkmaar, who have won their only home match of the season so far. PEC Zwolle faces travel and morale challenges after their recent away defeat.
- AZ Alkmaar aims to consolidate a top-of-table position early in the season, while PEC Zwolle looks to improve standings after inconsistent results, likely prioritizing defensive caution.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AZ_Alkmaar: -312, Draw: +430, FC_Zwolle: +620 | AZ Alkmaar | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | AZ_Alkmaar_-1.5: -111, FC_Zwolle_+1.5: -109 | AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over_3.25: -106, Under_3.25: -114 | Under 3.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar -10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.25 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar will win the match outright, covering at least a 1.5 goal margin, with the match likely to have three or fewer goals overall.
Predicted Score: 2-0