Match Analysis: AVS Futebol SAD vs Casa Pia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-15
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio do CD das Aves, Vila das Aves, Portugal
Game Overview
The upcoming Primeira Liga match features AVS Futebol SAD hosting Casa Pia at Estadio do CD das Aves. AVS has struggled recently with only 1 win in their last 10 games and a high loss rate, while Casa Pia's form is slightly better with 3 wins in their last 10. Historically, their encounters have been balanced with Casa Pia having a slight edge in wins (44%) and AVS with fewer (11%). Matches between these teams tend to have goals, with over 1.5 goals in 89% of H2H games and BTTS (both teams to score) occurring 67% of the time.
Key Factors to Consider
- AVS Futebol SAD has had a poor recent run with just 1 win in 10 games, while Casa Pia has been marginally better winning 3 matches and drawing 1 in their last 10. AVS concedes goals regularly and has only 9 clean sheets versus Casa Pia's 7. Casa Pia has scored more goals (48) than AVS (29) this season, indicating a stronger attack.
- In the last 9 meetings, Casa Pia has won 4 times, AVS has won once, and there have been 4 draws. The matches have high scoring frequency: 89% had over 1.5 goals and 67% had over 2.5 goals. BTTS occurred in 67% of these matches.
- AVS Futebol SAD will be missing key players Gerson Rodrigues (9), Kiki (20), and Claudio Mendes (99) due to injuries, potentially weakening their squad depth and defensive stability. No specific injury data is available for Casa Pia.
- The match is taking place at AVS's home stadium, Estadio do CD das Aves, which may provide some home advantage. No weather or other external conditions are noted.
- Casa Pia, with better recent form and historical dominance, may have stronger motivation to capitalize on AVS's vulnerabilities. AVS will be motivated to reverse their poor form on home ground but will be hampered by injuries.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AVS Futebol SAD: 1.68, Casa Pia: 1.78, Draw: 2 | Casa Pia Win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | AVS Futebol SAD: -115 (0 spread), Casa Pia: -105 (0 spread) | Casa Pia +0 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 1.05, Under 2.25: 1.25 | Over 2.25 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Casa Pia 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Casa Pia is favored to edge a closely contested match given AVS's poor form and injury challenges. A draw is also a plausible outcome given H2H history and evenly matched defenses.
Predicted Score: 1-2