Match Analysis: Auxerre vs Marseille – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 8:05 PM UTC
- Location: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
Game Overview
Marseille are favored to win away at Auxerre in this Ligue 1 match, with Auxerre struggling near the relegation zone and Marseille looking to bounce back from a recent winless streak after a strong earlier run of form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Auxerre have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses in their last 8, sitting near relegation with just 7 points from 10 games. Marseille sit 3rd with 19 points, but have gone 3 games without a win after 5 consecutive victories.
- Recent meeting saw Auxerre win 3-0 in their last encounter, but Marseille hold a stronger overall squad quality and Ligue 1 standing advantage.
- No significant injury reports announced for either side that would drastically impact starting lineups.
- Match played at Auxerre's home stadium Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, possibly favoring home performance but Marseille have demonstrated road resilience.
- Auxerre motivated to avoid relegation zone, but Marseille highly motivated to maintain a top-table position and rebound after recent draws and losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Auxerre: +380, Marseille: -153, Draw: +300 | Marseille | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Auxerre +75: -102, Marseille -0.75: -118 | Marseille -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -120, Under 2.75: +100 | Over 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marseille 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marseille to win moneyline, Marseille -0.75 spread, Over 2.75 goals
Predicted Score: 1-2